Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
ALNT · Why this verdict
Why Allient (ALNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allient has strong fundamentals, with a perfect 9-of-9 Piotroski score and 3 beats in 4 quarters, and 20% upside to the analyst target, but heavy insider selling and earnings in three days add near-term risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9 and a current ratio score of 9.6 point to strong financial health. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score stays at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin and return scores are low, so health metrics may not translate to profit growth. | ||
Earnings beat in three of the last four quarters, including a 30.6% surprise in August 2026. Earnings | EPS beats at the November 4 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe May 2026 quarter missed, so consistency is not assured. | ||
The analyst target of $102.66 is 19.9% above the $85.59 price with a reward-to-risk of 1.4. Targets | Price moves toward the target after earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReward-to-risk of 1.4 is thin against a 14% downside. | ||
Insiders sold about $7.95M, or 0.55% of market cap, across 5 sell transactions versus 1 buy. Insider breakdown | Insider selling declines below 0.2% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling may be pre-planned and insiders retain large stakes. | ||
Reliance on a single or limited number of suppliers and implied volatility of 85% raise operating risk. Bear case | Supply stays stable with no disruption through 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA supplier disruption would hit a $1.5B small-cap with limited buffer. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 of 9 and a current ratio score of 9.6 point to strong financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score stays at 7 or above.
CounterMargin and return scores are low, so health metrics may not translate to profit growth.
Earnings beat in three of the last four quarters, including a 30.6% surprise in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats at the November 4 report.
CounterThe May 2026 quarter missed, so consistency is not assured.
The analyst target of $102.66 is 19.9% above the $85.59 price with a reward-to-risk of 1.4.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the target after earnings.
CounterReward-to-risk of 1.4 is thin against a 14% downside.
Insiders sold about $7.95M, or 0.55% of market cap, across 5 sell transactions versus 1 buy.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling declines below 0.2% of market cap.
CounterSelling may be pre-planned and insiders retain large stakes.
Reliance on a single or limited number of suppliers and implied volatility of 85% raise operating risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply stays stable with no disruption through 12 months.
CounterA supplier disruption would hit a $1.5B small-cap with limited buffer.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.0 |
| holder change | 7.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $7,950,926 (0.556% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Above max pain $80
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (3)
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.56%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.27
Upside
+16.6%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.64>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, INSIDER:0.56%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Technical at 6.4, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Peer rank at 2.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Financial Health Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 9.
- P2Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside to target falls below 8% from current 19.9%.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 1% of market cap over 90 days.
- P5Supplier Concentration Volatility
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $135M from current $154M.