Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.30
ALLT · Why this verdict
Why Allot (ALLT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allot clears the engine's asymmetry bar with 39% modeled upside, excellent cash conversion, and a strong beat-and-raise earnings history, but elevated leverage at a D/E of 5.1, material insider selling, and a still-below-200-day-moving-average chart keep this a recovery story rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Elevated leverage at a D/E of 5.1 combined with material insider selling of 8 sells flags value-trap risk despite the growth and cash-flow strengths. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline from the current 5.1 for the leverage concern to ease. | — |
| CounterA software infrastructure company with strong recurring cash flow can service higher leverage more comfortably than the raw D/E ratio implies. | ||
The stock clears the engine's asymmetry bar at 2.6x with 39.3% modeled upside to the analyst target. Reward-to-risk math | Price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward the $11.74 take-profit target if the asymmetry holds over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterLight historical analyst coverage on this small-cap name increases the risk that the target itself is unreliable. | ||
The company converts 276% of net income into free cash flow, backed by a strong 8/9 Piotroski score. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income should remain well above 100% for the cash-generation strength to persist. | — |
| CounterAn extremely high FCF-to-NI ratio can reflect one-time working-capital timing benefits that won't repeat every year. | ||
The stock is attempting a recovery with improving MACD and RSI 68 while still trading below its 200-day moving average, a death-cross-to-recovery pattern. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average for the recovery to be considered confirmed. | — |
| CounterA passed momentum gate at 6.1 against the 5.5 threshold suggests the recovery may already be further along than the still-below-200-day-MA status implies. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in its last 2 reported quarters with an average surprise of 145%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next report in 40 days for the execution thesis to strengthen further. | — |
| CounterA 145% average surprise on a small revenue base can be driven by lumpy license deals rather than sustainable recurring growth. | ||
Elevated leverage at a D/E of 5.1 combined with material insider selling of 8 sells flags value-trap risk despite the growth and cash-flow strengths.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline from the current 5.1 for the leverage concern to ease.
CounterA software infrastructure company with strong recurring cash flow can service higher leverage more comfortably than the raw D/E ratio implies.
The stock clears the engine's asymmetry bar at 2.6x with 39.3% modeled upside to the analyst target.
—Reward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should close a meaningful portion of the gap toward the $11.74 take-profit target if the asymmetry holds over the next 12 months.
CounterLight historical analyst coverage on this small-cap name increases the risk that the target itself is unreliable.
The company converts 276% of net income into free cash flow, backed by a strong 8/9 Piotroski score.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income should remain well above 100% for the cash-generation strength to persist.
CounterAn extremely high FCF-to-NI ratio can reflect one-time working-capital timing benefits that won't repeat every year.
The stock is attempting a recovery with improving MACD and RSI 68 while still trading below its 200-day moving average, a death-cross-to-recovery pattern.
—Chart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average for the recovery to be considered confirmed.
CounterA passed momentum gate at 6.1 against the 5.5 threshold suggests the recovery may already be further along than the still-below-200-day-MA status implies.
The company has beaten estimates in its last 2 reported quarters with an average surprise of 145%.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next report in 40 days for the execution thesis to strengthen further.
CounterA 145% average surprise on a small revenue base can be driven by lumpy license deals rather than sustainable recurring growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 192% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 7.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $512,161 (0.118% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $4
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.71
Upside
+32.8%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.48>1.3, MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Catalyst at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Insider at 3.3, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Passed Asymmetry Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 2.62.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% from the current 276%.
- P3High Leverage Value Trap
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 3.0 from the current 5.1.
- P4Recovery Below 200 Day Ma
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average for more than 5 consecutive trading days.
- P5Strong Earnings Beat History
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% from the current 145%.