Value
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.70
- ▸Attractively valued
AKO-B · Why this verdict
Why Embotelladora Andina (AKO-B) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden-cross structure with the stock above all key moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and constructive MACD signals indicate that the technical momentum is skewed to the upside and that demand is progressively outpacing supply. Momentum breakdown | The stock holds above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues its rising trend in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical breadth is uneven — support/resistance components score at 3.5 out of 10 and Bollinger positioning at 2.1 — suggesting the golden-cross structure is not broadly confirmed across all technical dimensions and could stall or reverse if volume accumulation falters. | ||
At a forward P/E of 17.9x and a PEG of 0.71, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, with the peer comparison confirming an attractive P/E versus the group — a valuation discount that provides a margin of safety for patient investors. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 22x over the next 12 months as the market progressively re-rates the earnings growth story, producing valuation-driven appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterA market capitalization of approximately $4.7 billion places the name in a smaller-cap suitability band; liquidity constraints and lighter analyst coverage can keep the multiple structurally below larger peers even when fundamentals improve, making the valuation discount persistent rather than temporary. | ||
The company beat consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters — with positive surprises of roughly 20%, 4.6%, and 18.5% respectively — establishing a sustained pattern of delivering results above expectations. Earnings | Earnings continue to beat consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, sustaining the positive track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarter preceding the streak was a miss, and the three beats follow a period of recalibrated expectations; if estimates have been set conservatively, the streak may reflect guidance discipline rather than a genuine operational improvement that can compound further. | ||
With only 4.9% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.70-to-1 — below the threshold for a favorable setup — the current price leaves insufficient compensation for the 13% downside risk inherent in the position, making new entry difficult to justify. Price targets | The analyst consensus price target rises above $40, creating more than 33% upside from the current price and restoring a favorable risk/reward for entry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe fundamental quality of the business — attractive valuation, consistent beats, and positive technical momentum — can justify holding an existing position even at thin near-term upside; the risk/reward concern is most pressing for new buyers, not current holders with a lower cost basis. | ||
A golden-cross structure with the stock above all key moving averages, rising on-balance volume, and constructive MACD signals indicate that the technical momentum is skewed to the upside and that demand is progressively outpacing supply.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock holds above its 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues its rising trend in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterTechnical breadth is uneven — support/resistance components score at 3.5 out of 10 and Bollinger positioning at 2.1 — suggesting the golden-cross structure is not broadly confirmed across all technical dimensions and could stall or reverse if volume accumulation falters.
At a forward P/E of 17.9x and a PEG of 0.71, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, with the peer comparison confirming an attractive P/E versus the group — a valuation discount that provides a margin of safety for patient investors.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 22x over the next 12 months as the market progressively re-rates the earnings growth story, producing valuation-driven appreciation.
CounterA market capitalization of approximately $4.7 billion places the name in a smaller-cap suitability band; liquidity constraints and lighter analyst coverage can keep the multiple structurally below larger peers even when fundamentals improve, making the valuation discount persistent rather than temporary.
The company beat consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters — with positive surprises of roughly 20%, 4.6%, and 18.5% respectively — establishing a sustained pattern of delivering results above expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, sustaining the positive track record.
CounterThe quarter preceding the streak was a miss, and the three beats follow a period of recalibrated expectations; if estimates have been set conservatively, the streak may reflect guidance discipline rather than a genuine operational improvement that can compound further.
With only 4.9% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.70-to-1 — below the threshold for a favorable setup — the current price leaves insufficient compensation for the 13% downside risk inherent in the position, making new entry difficult to justify.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target rises above $40, creating more than 33% upside from the current price and restoring a favorable risk/reward for entry.
CounterThe fundamental quality of the business — attractive valuation, consistent beats, and positive technical momentum — can justify holding an existing position even at thin near-term upside; the risk/reward concern is most pressing for new buyers, not current holders with a lower cost basis.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Embotelladora Andina's B shares have delivered three consecutive earnings beats — including a 20% positive surprise in the most recent quarter — on a forward P/E of 17.9x and a PEG of 0.71 that both screen as attractively valued versus the peer group. A golden-cross technical structure with volume accumulation above all moving averages frames a constructive setup, though the 0.70-to-1 risk/reward and only 4.9% headroom to the price target limit the immediate upside case for new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 457.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Peer rank at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Value at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Technical at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Three Consecutive Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Peg Below One
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 25x from the current 17.9x, eliminating the valuation advantage versus the peer group.
- P3Golden Cross Volume Accumulation
Trip ifStock falls below its 200-day moving average and stays below for 10 consecutive trading sessions, breaking the golden-cross structure.
- P4Limited Risk Reward Unfavorable Geometry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $40, creating more than 33% upside from the current $29.89 and restoring a favorable risk/reward for new entry.