Value
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.34
AKO-B · Why this verdict
Why Embotelladora Andina (AKO-B) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Embotelladora Andina's B shares are a defensive beverage bottler with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a 3.5% dividend, but the price is at the analyst target and momentum is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is 3.7/10 with the stock below its 200-day average, even though on-balance volume is rising. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5 as the price moves back above its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 1.5% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend and not confirmed weakness. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 with ROE and moat components of 7.7 and 6.8, though operating margin scores 0.0. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall quality score of 5.3 is only average and the zero operating margin component questions profitability. | ||
The stock pays a 3.5% dividend with a safety component of 5.5/10 in a defensive beverage business. Components | The dividend yield stays at least 3% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dividend safety score of only 5.5 suggests the payout is vulnerable to a cut if currency or input costs rise. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including a 7.4% beat in October 2026 (390.0 versus 363.0 estimated). Catalyst breakdown | Earnings surprise stays positive at the next report in late January 2027. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats against estimates in a thinly covered stock (about 6 analysts) may reflect stale estimates rather than real operating strength. | ||
With upside of just 0.4%, the $28.12 price is almost at the $28.22 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.1%, so reward-to-risk is 0.04. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above $30, or the price pulls back toward the $26.15 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat streak could lead analysts to raise targets, so near-target pricing may not cap the stock. | ||
Momentum is 3.7/10 with the stock below its 200-day average, even though on-balance volume is rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5 as the price moves back above its 200-day average.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 1.5% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend and not confirmed weakness.
The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 with ROE and moat components of 7.7 and 6.8, though operating margin scores 0.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above through the next 12 months.
CounterThe overall quality score of 5.3 is only average and the zero operating margin component questions profitability.
The stock pays a 3.5% dividend with a safety component of 5.5/10 in a defensive beverage business.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- The dividend yield stays at least 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterA dividend safety score of only 5.5 suggests the payout is vulnerable to a cut if currency or input costs rise.
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including a 7.4% beat in October 2026 (390.0 versus 363.0 estimated).
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive at the next report in late January 2027.
CounterBeats against estimates in a thinly covered stock (about 6 analysts) may reflect stale estimates rather than real operating strength.
With upside of just 0.4%, the $28.12 price is almost at the $28.22 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.1%, so reward-to-risk is 0.04.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $30, or the price pulls back toward the $26.15 stop.
CounterA beat streak could lead analysts to raise targets, so near-target pricing may not cap the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.3%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, Value at 6.3, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Growth at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $31 while the analyst target stays below $29, a gap of more than 6%.
- P3Weak Price Momentum
Trip ifShare price falls below the $26.15 stop level, a drop of more than 7%.
- P4Sound Financial Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from current 8.
- P5Defensive Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 2.5% from current 3.5%.