Value
9.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
AKO-A · Why this verdict
Why Embotelladora Andina (AKO-A) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
On-balance volume is in a rising trend and the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, indicating that underlying demand is progressively outpacing supply on a cumulative basis and the longer-term trend remains intact. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues its rising trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is at the minimum passing threshold and the setup is range-bound — the technical strength is marginal; any deterioration in volume accumulation or a close below the 200-day moving average could quickly shift the technical balance toward the bear case. | ||
At a PEG of 0.47, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, and the peer comparison highlights an attractive P/E versus the group — indicating the market has not fully priced in the earnings growth trajectory relative to what peers command. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward the peer average over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount, producing multiple-driven appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration. | →Stable |
| CounterThe valuation dimension carries a 0.33 confidence weight — the lowest in the deck — meaning the attractive PEG may reflect data sparseness rather than genuine mispricing; institutional investors may sustain a liquidity discount that keeps the multiple structurally below a fuller data set. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 reported periods, reflecting a pattern of consistent delivery above expectations that supports the quality of the earnings stream. Bull case | The company beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, maintaining the established beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe underlying earnings history reflects limited data recency for this name, which introduces uncertainty about whether the beat streak is representative of the current operating environment; a 1-in-4 miss rate also indicates expectations management is not perfect. | ||
The stock is in a range-bound technical pattern with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward of 0.34-to-1 — the geometry leaves insufficient reward for the 6.2% downside risk, making new entry unattractive at current prices. Price targets | The price target revises higher by at least 15% over the next 12 months, restoring a favorable risk/reward of at least 1.5-to-1 and justifying re-entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA range-bound environment with volume accumulation and low short interest can resolve upward if a fundamental catalyst emerges; the constrained near-term geometry does not mean the thesis is broken for a patient long-term holder. | ||
On-balance volume is in a rising trend and the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, indicating that underlying demand is progressively outpacing supply on a cumulative basis and the longer-term trend remains intact.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues its rising trend and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterMomentum is at the minimum passing threshold and the setup is range-bound — the technical strength is marginal; any deterioration in volume accumulation or a close below the 200-day moving average could quickly shift the technical balance toward the bear case.
At a PEG of 0.47, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth rate, and the peer comparison highlights an attractive P/E versus the group — indicating the market has not fully priced in the earnings growth trajectory relative to what peers command.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward the peer average over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount, producing multiple-driven appreciation even without earnings growth acceleration.
CounterThe valuation dimension carries a 0.33 confidence weight — the lowest in the deck — meaning the attractive PEG may reflect data sparseness rather than genuine mispricing; institutional investors may sustain a liquidity discount that keeps the multiple structurally below a fuller data set.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 reported periods, reflecting a pattern of consistent delivery above expectations that supports the quality of the earnings stream.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, maintaining the established beat track record.
CounterThe underlying earnings history reflects limited data recency for this name, which introduces uncertainty about whether the beat streak is representative of the current operating environment; a 1-in-4 miss rate also indicates expectations management is not perfect.
The stock is in a range-bound technical pattern with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and a risk/reward of 0.34-to-1 — the geometry leaves insufficient reward for the 6.2% downside risk, making new entry unattractive at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The price target revises higher by at least 15% over the next 12 months, restoring a favorable risk/reward of at least 1.5-to-1 and justifying re-entry.
CounterA range-bound environment with volume accumulation and low short interest can resolve upward if a fundamental catalyst emerges; the constrained near-term geometry does not mean the thesis is broken for a patient long-term holder.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Embotelladora Andina's A shares screen as attractively valued with a PEG of 0.47 and volume accumulation above the 200-day moving average, while a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat track record provides a quality fundamental backdrop. However, the stock is effectively range-bound with only 2.1% headroom to the price target and an unfavorable 0.34-to-1 risk/reward — a setup that rewards patience in an existing position but does not support new exposure at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.8x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (6.3%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 8.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 542.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.4; weakest: Peer rank at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9, and Momentum at 7.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Technical at 4.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x from the current level, eliminating the valuation discount versus the peer group.
- P2Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
- P3Range Bound Exhausted Upside
Trip ifPrice target revises above $27 — more than 17% above the current $22.94 — restoring a favorable risk/reward for new entry.
- P4Volume Accumulation Above 200ma
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls to a declining trend and the stock closes below its 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.