Value
6.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
- ▸PEG: 1.62
AKO-A · Why this verdict
Why Embotelladora Andina (AKO-A) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Embotelladora Andina is a defensive non-alcoholic beverage bottler with very low volatility, positive momentum and a 3.8% dividend, though business quality is middling and reported revenue is only provisional.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is 7.6/10 with a golden cross, the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average while the momentum score stays above 6. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stop is only 1.2% below the price, so a small reversal after a breakout would invalidate the setup. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with ROE and moat components of 7.7 and 6.8, though operating margin scores 0.0. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and operating margin component improves above 3/10. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall quality score of 5.3 is only average, and a zero operating margin component questions profitability. | ||
The stock pays a 3.8% dividend, with a dividend safety component of 5.5/10. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is held at a yield of at least 3% over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dividend safety score of only 5.5 suggests the payout could be cut if currency or commodity costs rise. | ||
The risk score is 9.0/10, with volatility, beta and short interest components all at the maximum 10.0, typical of a stable beverage business. Components | Risk score stays above 8/10 through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow volatility in a thinly followed foreign-listed share can hide currency and local-market risk that surfaces suddenly. | ||
Provisional revenue for the September 2026 quarter was 896.6B versus 800.4B a year earlier, about 12% growth, with 1,082B estimated next quarter. Revenue quarters | Revenue stays above 850B per quarter, near the next-quarter estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe revenue figures come from a provisional data source and are in local currency, so currency swings may distort real growth. | ||
Momentum is 7.6/10 with a golden cross, the price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average while the momentum score stays above 6.
CounterThe stop is only 1.2% below the price, so a small reversal after a breakout would invalidate the setup.
The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with ROE and moat components of 7.7 and 6.8, though operating margin scores 0.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and operating margin component improves above 3/10.
CounterThe overall quality score of 5.3 is only average, and a zero operating margin component questions profitability.
The stock pays a 3.8% dividend, with a dividend safety component of 5.5/10.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is held at a yield of at least 3% over 12 months.
CounterA dividend safety score of only 5.5 suggests the payout could be cut if currency or commodity costs rise.
The risk score is 9.0/10, with volatility, beta and short interest components all at the maximum 10.0, typical of a stable beverage business.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Risk score stays above 8/10 through the next 12 months.
CounterLow volatility in a thinly followed foreign-listed share can hide currency and local-market risk that surfaces suddenly.
Provisional revenue for the September 2026 quarter was 896.6B versus 800.4B a year earlier, about 12% growth, with 1,082B estimated next quarter.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue stays above 850B per quarter, near the next-quarter estimate.
CounterThe revenue figures come from a provisional data source and are in local currency, so currency swings may distort real growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (10.9x avg) on up move
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+15.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0, Momentum at 8.5, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 4.5, and Sentiment at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Risk Defensive Profile
Trip ifRisk score falls below 6.0 from current 9.0.
- P2Positive Breakout Momentum
Trip ifShare price falls below the $23.92 stop level, a drop of more than 1.2%.
- P3Sound Financial Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from current 8.
- P4Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below 800B for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 2.5% from current 3.8%.