Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
AKAM · Why this verdict
Why Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Akamai trades 44% below its 52-week high on a 13.6x forward P/E with 50.4% upside to the analyst target and excellent cash conversion, but growth is weak and the stock is in a downtrend with high short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores 1.9/10, with an earnings growth component of 0.0 and a growth rank versus peers of only 1.8. Growth | Revenue growth component recovers above 5/10 as new product lines scale. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a growth reacceleration, the cheap multiple may be a value trap and the stock deserves its discount. | ||
The $92.72 price sits 50.4% below the $139.47 analyst target, with 10.9% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 4.64. Estimated upside | Price recovers toward the analyst target as sentiment and earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter a drawdown of more than 40% from the 52-week high, analyst targets may be stale and cut once results disappoint. | ||
Free cash flow is 173% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, indicating solid underlying earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion on low net income (ROE component 3.0/10) may reflect heavy non-cash charges rather than real strength. | ||
Momentum is 4.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, and the stock trades below its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5.5 and on-balance volume turns up. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 2.0% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend and not confirmed weakness. | ||
Short interest is 15%, the put/call ratio is 1.46, implied volatility is 113%, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 triggers a leverage penalty. Key risks | Short interest falls below 10% and put/call drops below 1.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze if results beat expectations, turning a risk into upside. | ||
Growth scores 1.9/10, with an earnings growth component of 0.0 and a growth rank versus peers of only 1.8.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth component recovers above 5/10 as new product lines scale.
CounterWithout a growth reacceleration, the cheap multiple may be a value trap and the stock deserves its discount.
The $92.72 price sits 50.4% below the $139.47 analyst target, with 10.9% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 4.64.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price recovers toward the analyst target as sentiment and earnings stabilize.
CounterAfter a drawdown of more than 40% from the 52-week high, analyst targets may be stale and cut once results disappoint.
Free cash flow is 173% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, indicating solid underlying earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh cash conversion on low net income (ROE component 3.0/10) may reflect heavy non-cash charges rather than real strength.
Momentum is 4.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, and the stock trades below its 200-day average.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5.5 and on-balance volume turns up.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 2.0% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend and not confirmed weakness.
Short interest is 15%, the put/call ratio is 1.46, implied volatility is 113%, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 triggers a leverage penalty.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% and put/call drops below 1.0.
CounterHigh short interest can fuel a squeeze if results beat expectations, turning a risk into upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 173% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 92%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,467,221 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.7 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸High IV: 112%
- ▸Above max pain $69
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.17
Upside
+72.5%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 6.9, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Growth at 1.9, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Discount Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $110, cutting upside to less than 20% from current 50.4%.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 90% from current 173%.
- P3Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score stays below 2.0 for 4 consecutive quarterly updates.
- P4Downtrend MomentumTripped
Trip ifShare price falls below the $86.23 stop level, a drop of more than 7%.
- P5Short Interest And Leverage Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% of float from current 15%.