Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.71
- Estimate
- $0.86
- Surprise
- -17.6%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $393.4M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.6 → 6.5/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) missed the $0.86 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.71 — a large 17.6% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.6/10) to Sell at 6.5/10 after the report.
Coverage in the report window
- Stephens & Co. Maintains Equal-Weight on Affirm Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $80 — benzinga, 2026-11-06
- Why Is Affirm Stock Falling Friday? — benzinga, 2026-11-06
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates AFRM Sell at 6.5/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -17.6% surprise compares with a +109.9% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-04.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Counterparty: Celtic Bank and Lead Bank originating banks
- Concentration risk — Product: interest-bearing monthly installment loans (70.0%)
- Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $68.11
- Price target
- $90.04
- Stop
- $64.04
- Upside to target
- +32.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.7:1
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (13.6× forward vs 11.8× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Risk check: trading volume is running 2.3× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-07 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
AFRM at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $22.98B
- P/E (fwd)
- 13.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.8
- 52-week range
- $42.09–$90.44
- Off 52-week high
- 24.7%
- RSI (14)
- 41
- Volume vs avg
- 2.33×
- Score today
- 6.5/10