Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $4.97
- Estimate
- $0.85
- Surprise
- +486.3%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $387.5M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 6.3/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) beat the $0.85 estimate with adjusted EPS of $4.97 — a large 486.3% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Sell at 6.3/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates AFRM Sell at 6.6/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +486.3% surprise compares with a +114.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Counterparty: originating banks Celtic Bank and Lead Bank
- Concentration risk — Product: interest-bearing monthly installment loans share of GMV (72.0%)
- Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $70.51
- Price target
- $90.42
- Stop
- $65.57
- Upside to target
- +28.2%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.9:1
At 14.1× trailing and 15.7× forward earnings, consensus estimates imply little change in earnings power.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.9× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-14 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
AFRM at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $26.28B
- P/E (fwd)
- 15.7
- P/E (ttm)
- 14.1
- 52-week range
- $42.09–$90.44
- Off 52-week high
- 22.0%
- RSI (14)
- 48
- Volume vs avg
- 1.93×
- Score today
- 6.6/10