Value
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
AEG · Why this verdict
Why Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh (AEG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aegon is a cheaply valued insurer (forward P/E 8.7x) with a low-quality profile, declining revenue and negative cash conversion; at $8.18 the price is only 2.6% below the $8.39 analyst target, so little upside remains.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality score is 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of -428% FCF/NI and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should turn positive and quality score rise above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows the underlying financials are healthy, and insurer cash flow is volatile from reserve and investment timing. | ||
Forward P/E of 8.7x and PEG of 0.39 make the value score 9.5, attractively valued against peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should remain below 10x as earnings are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on declining revenue and negative cash conversion may be a value trap rather than a bargain. | ||
The price of $8.18 is only 2.6% below the $8.39 analyst target, versus 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.52. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above $9 for meaningful upside to emerge. | →Stable |
| CounterAnother note shows analyst upside of 21% on unhaircut targets, so the gap may be larger than the conservative target suggests. | ||
Revenue is declining by 8% and the growth score is only 2.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline should narrow to better than -3% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurer revenue is distorted by investment and reserve movements, so the decline may not reflect the underlying business. | ||
A yield-trap warning flags the high dividend yield as unsafe, even though momentum is supported by rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day moving average. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained and momentum score should stay at or above 5.4. | →Stable |
| CounterThe shares are supported by accumulation and the dividend has been maintained, so the warning may be overcautious. | ||
Quality score is 3.6, below the 4.0 floor, with an earnings-quality red flag of -428% FCF/NI and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should turn positive and quality score rise above 4.0.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows the underlying financials are healthy, and insurer cash flow is volatile from reserve and investment timing.
Forward P/E of 8.7x and PEG of 0.39 make the value score 9.5, attractively valued against peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should remain below 10x as earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterA low multiple on declining revenue and negative cash conversion may be a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price of $8.18 is only 2.6% below the $8.39 analyst target, versus 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.52.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above $9 for meaningful upside to emerge.
CounterAnother note shows analyst upside of 21% on unhaircut targets, so the gap may be larger than the conservative target suggests.
Revenue is declining by 8% and the growth score is only 2.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline should narrow to better than -3% YoY.
CounterInsurer revenue is distorted by investment and reserve movements, so the decline may not reflect the underlying business.
A yield-trap warning flags the high dividend yield as unsafe, even though momentum is supported by rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day moving average.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained and momentum score should stay at or above 5.4.
CounterThe shares are supported by accumulation and the dividend has been maintained, so the warning may be overcautious.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -428% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Above max pain $8
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of -0.34.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Peer rank at 2.7, and Catalyst at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 8.7x.
- P2Little Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds 10% above the $8.39 analyst target, above about $9.23.
- P3Weak Quality And Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.6.
- P4Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 15% YoY from current -8%.
- P5Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 20% from the current rate.