Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
ACT · Why this verdict
Why Enact Holdings (ACT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Enact is a high-quality specialty insurer (55% margins, Piotroski 8/9, 2.0% dividend) with a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and attractive valuation, but the price is 13.0% above the analyst target and insiders sold $72M (1.1% of market cap). Earnings arrive in 3 days, so waiting is warranted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Enact earns margins of 55%, scores 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score and passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 46. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality carries a warning at only 76% FCF/NI and ROE scores just 4.3 out of 10, so cash and equity returns lag headline margins. | ||
Enact beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $1.26 versus $1.19 in August 2026, for an average surprise of 5.0%. Earnings | The November 4 report extends the streak to a fifth consecutive beat. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are small (1% to 12%), so with the stock above its analyst target, an in-line print could still disappoint. | ||
Enact trades at a forward P/E of 9.4x with a PEG of 0.74 and pays a 2.0% dividend as a dividend aristocrat with dividend safety of 8.5 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x and the dividend is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores only 4.0 out of 10, so low multiples may reflect a business near peak earnings. | ||
Insiders sold $72,062,371, equal to 1.111% of market cap, which is classed as heavy and extreme selling relative to the company's size. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows to under 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales by a major holder may reflect a planned stake reduction rather than a view on the business. | ||
The price of $47.18 is 13.0% above the $41.06 analyst target, with 6.6% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.96. Targets | Analysts raise targets after earnings, or the price retraces toward $41.06. | →Stable |
| CounterNews sentiment is negative (-0.90) while quality and value both score 7.3, a gap that could close as the price rises. | ||
Enact earns margins of 55%, scores 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score and passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 46.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality carries a warning at only 76% FCF/NI and ROE scores just 4.3 out of 10, so cash and equity returns lag headline margins.
Enact beat estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, including $1.26 versus $1.19 in August 2026, for an average surprise of 5.0%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 4 report extends the streak to a fifth consecutive beat.
CounterBeats are small (1% to 12%), so with the stock above its analyst target, an in-line print could still disappoint.
Enact trades at a forward P/E of 9.4x with a PEG of 0.74 and pays a 2.0% dividend as a dividend aristocrat with dividend safety of 8.5 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x and the dividend is raised.
CounterGrowth scores only 4.0 out of 10, so low multiples may reflect a business near peak earnings.
Insiders sold $72,062,371, equal to 1.111% of market cap, which is classed as heavy and extreme selling relative to the company's size.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to under 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterLarge sales by a major holder may reflect a planned stake reduction rather than a view on the business.
The price of $47.18 is 13.0% above the $41.06 analyst target, with 6.6% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.96.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets after earnings, or the price retraces toward $41.06.
CounterNews sentiment is negative (-0.90) while quality and value both score 7.3, a gap that could close as the price rises.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.7 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 55%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 46 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.7 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.32 (n=3)
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $72,062,371 (1.103% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.10%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.72
Upside
-14.9%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Growth at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Quality at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.2, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% from the current 55%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cheap Valuation And Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 13x from the current 9.4x.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 2% of market cap over the next 90 days.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $43.67 or below, from the current $47.18.