Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.37
ACN · Why this verdict
Why Accenture (ACN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Accenture combines strong free cash flow conversion, consistent earnings beats, and an attractive forward multiple with approximately 29% upside to analyst targets, but a confirmed price downtrend and earnings two days out create near-term uncertainty that argues for patience before initiating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.1 times and a PEG of 1.16, the stock is attractively priced relative to its peer group and growth profile, with approximately 29% headroom remaining to the consensus analyst target of $213.17. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes the gap toward $213.17 over the next 12 months as the valuation discount normalizes toward a fair-value multiple and analyst estimates hold or rise. | →Stable |
| CounterSoft momentum and a confirmed downtrend suggest the market is pricing in structurally lower growth expectations; the low forward multiple may reflect rational caution rather than an exploitable discount. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 159% of net income, indicating the business converts reported earnings into real cash well above parity, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 that reflects broad financial health across balance sheet, profitability, and efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming that the cash-generation quality is structural rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion above 100% can be partially attributable to favorable working capital timing or deferred tax benefits that eventually reverse; a single quarter of elevated cash outflows could bring conversion back toward 100% without reflecting any underlying business deterioration. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging approximately 4.0% above expectations — a pattern that reflects steady execution and disciplined management of guidance. Earnings | The earnings report due in approximately 2 days extends the beat streak with a positive surprise, sustaining the four-quarter record of outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings report in 2 days is a binary event; any miss — even a narrow one — would break the four-quarter streak and likely trigger a sharp downside reaction given the current negative momentum and elevated put/call ratio of 1.66. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of -5.1%, and a death cross has triggered, placing the price action in a confirmed downtrend that creates overhead resistance and near-term entry risk. Warnings | A sustained close above the 200-day moving average with a flattening or positive slope would confirm the downtrend is reversing and reduce the technical headwind materially. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong post-earnings reaction could sharply accelerate the technical recovery; if the upcoming print beats expectations meaningfully, the downtrend could resolve faster than the current chart pattern suggests. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.1 times and a PEG of 1.16, the stock is attractively priced relative to its peer group and growth profile, with approximately 29% headroom remaining to the consensus analyst target of $213.17.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes the gap toward $213.17 over the next 12 months as the valuation discount normalizes toward a fair-value multiple and analyst estimates hold or rise.
CounterSoft momentum and a confirmed downtrend suggest the market is pricing in structurally lower growth expectations; the low forward multiple may reflect rational caution rather than an exploitable discount.
Free cash flow is running at 159% of net income, indicating the business converts reported earnings into real cash well above parity, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 that reflects broad financial health across balance sheet, profitability, and efficiency metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming that the cash-generation quality is structural rather than episodic.
CounterFree cash flow conversion above 100% can be partially attributable to favorable working capital timing or deferred tax benefits that eventually reverse; a single quarter of elevated cash outflows could bring conversion back toward 100% without reflecting any underlying business deterioration.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging approximately 4.0% above expectations — a pattern that reflects steady execution and disciplined management of guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings report due in approximately 2 days extends the beat streak with a positive surprise, sustaining the four-quarter record of outperformance.
CounterThe earnings report in 2 days is a binary event; any miss — even a narrow one — would break the four-quarter streak and likely trigger a sharp downside reaction given the current negative momentum and elevated put/call ratio of 1.66.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of -5.1%, and a death cross has triggered, placing the price action in a confirmed downtrend that creates overhead resistance and near-term entry risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A sustained close above the 200-day moving average with a flattening or positive slope would confirm the downtrend is reversing and reduce the technical headwind materially.
CounterA strong post-earnings reaction could sharply accelerate the technical recovery; if the upcoming print beats expectations meaningfully, the downtrend could resolve faster than the current chart pattern suggests.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 155% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.35 (n=7)
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,710,919 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.23
Upside
-11.2%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.7, Value at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Technical at 3.3, and Growth at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Valuation Discount 29pct Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $180, reducing the remaining upside to less than 9% from the current price of $165.36.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days and the 30-day MA slope turns positive from current -5.1%.