Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.48
ACN · Why this verdict
Why Accenture (ACN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Accenture is a high-quality IT services leader (ROE 26%, Piotroski 8/9, 128% FCF/NI) with strong momentum and a 2.6% dividend, but its price is 19.9% above the analyst target and it is overbought. Hold the quality; adding at this price is not compelling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E is 16.3x with a PEG of 2.45, so the valuation is full relative to growth, and revenue growth scores only 4.0 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth justifies the multiple, keeping PEG below 2.5. | →Stable |
| CounterRecent news sentiment is negative (-0.80), and a PEG above 2 leaves little room for earnings disappointments. | ||
Accenture earns an ROE of 26%, converts 128% of net income to free cash flow and scores 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 22% and FCF/NI stays above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin scores only 2.4 out of 10 and the moat score is 6.1, so returns depend on continued demand for consulting services. | ||
Accenture is a dividend aristocrat with a 2.6% yield and dividend safety of 8.0 out of 10. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is raised again over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 2.6% yield is modest, and a slowdown in consulting spending could slow dividend growth. | ||
The price of $258.24 is 19.9% above the $206.76 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.33. Targets | Analyst targets rise toward $258, or the price retraces toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets may lag a rerating, and momentum and volume accumulation remain strong. | ||
Momentum scores 7.8 out of 10 with rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 74 shows an overbought stock. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above the 200-day average while RSI cools below 70. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought readings together with a price far above the analyst target raise the odds of a sharp pullback. | ||
Forward P/E is 16.3x with a PEG of 2.45, so the valuation is full relative to growth, and revenue growth scores only 4.0 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth justifies the multiple, keeping PEG below 2.5.
CounterRecent news sentiment is negative (-0.80), and a PEG above 2 leaves little room for earnings disappointments.
Accenture earns an ROE of 26%, converts 128% of net income to free cash flow and scores 8/9 on the Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 22% and FCF/NI stays above 100%.
CounterGross margin scores only 2.4 out of 10 and the moat score is 6.1, so returns depend on continued demand for consulting services.
Accenture is a dividend aristocrat with a 2.6% yield and dividend safety of 8.0 out of 10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is raised again over the next 12 months.
CounterA 2.6% yield is modest, and a slowdown in consulting spending could slow dividend growth.
The price of $258.24 is 19.9% above the $206.76 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, a negative reward-to-risk of -1.33.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise toward $258, or the price retraces toward the target.
CounterAnalyst targets may lag a rerating, and momentum and volume accumulation remain strong.
Momentum scores 7.8 out of 10 with rising on-balance volume and a price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 74 shows an overbought stock.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above the 200-day average while RSI cools below 70.
CounterOverbought readings together with a price far above the analyst target raise the odds of a sharp pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 128% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,141,381 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $125
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.25
Upside
-18.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.1, Growth at 7.0, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Sentiment at 5.6, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Cash Conversion
Trip ifROE falls below 18% from the current 26%.
- P2Dividend Aristocrat Income
Trip ifThe dividend is cut or its yield falls below 2.0%.
- P3Price Well Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls to $240.16 or below, from the current $258.24.
- P4Overbought Strong Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average after RSI exceeds 70.
- P5Fair Valuation Moderate Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 3.0 from the current 2.45.