Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
ACMR · Why this verdict
Why ACM Research (ACMR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACM Research is a fast-growing semiconductor equipment maker (36% YoY growth, forward P/E 15.5x) trading 120.7% below its analyst target after a 64% drawdown. China and single-product concentration, negative cash conversion, insider selling and earnings in 4 days make it highly speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue and earnings are growing strongly, with 36% YoY growth, both growth components scoring 10 out of 10, and a PEG of 0.49. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth depends on mainland China customers and a single product family, so a policy or demand shock would reverse it quickly. | ||
Results depend on mainland China and on single wafer cleaning, Tahoe and semi-critical cleaning equipment at 69.5% of sales, with 3 HIGH concentration risks flagged. Bear case | Product concentration falls below 65% of sales as other lines scale. | →Stable |
| CounterExport controls or a Chinese capital-spending slowdown could cut sales in the lead product line sharply. | ||
The price of $45.47 is 120.7% below the $100.34 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 8.0. Targets | The price moves toward the analyst target as growth continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly 9 analysts cover the stock, so the signal is dampened, and an upside figure this large after a 64% drawdown may be a stale target. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged RED, with free cash flow at -124% of net income despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and FCF/NI rises above 0%. | →Stable |
| CounterFast-growing equipment makers build inventory and receivables, so negative cash flow may be a temporary working-capital drag. | ||
ACM Research beat in the last 2 quarters but missed in the 2 before (-37.5% and -32.4%), and insiders sold $15.3M (0.483% of market cap) while earnings land in 4 days. Earnings | The November 5 report beats the consensus estimate and insider selling slows. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings surprises have swung between +81% and -38%, so the November report is a coin flip with 118% implied volatility. | ||
Revenue and earnings are growing strongly, with 36% YoY growth, both growth components scoring 10 out of 10, and a PEG of 0.49.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth depends on mainland China customers and a single product family, so a policy or demand shock would reverse it quickly.
Results depend on mainland China and on single wafer cleaning, Tahoe and semi-critical cleaning equipment at 69.5% of sales, with 3 HIGH concentration risks flagged.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Product concentration falls below 65% of sales as other lines scale.
CounterExport controls or a Chinese capital-spending slowdown could cut sales in the lead product line sharply.
The price of $45.47 is 120.7% below the $100.34 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 8.0.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- The price moves toward the analyst target as growth continues.
CounterOnly 9 analysts cover the stock, so the signal is dampened, and an upside figure this large after a 64% drawdown may be a stale target.
Earnings quality is flagged RED, with free cash flow at -124% of net income despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and FCF/NI rises above 0%.
CounterFast-growing equipment makers build inventory and receivables, so negative cash flow may be a temporary working-capital drag.
ACM Research beat in the last 2 quarters but missed in the 2 before (-37.5% and -32.4%), and insiders sold $15.3M (0.483% of market cap) while earnings land in 4 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 5 report beats the consensus estimate and insider selling slows.
CounterEarnings surprises have swung between +81% and -38%, so the November report is a coin flip with 118% implied volatility.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 7.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -124% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 156%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $15,300,651 (0.498% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.7%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 123%
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:8.2>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.50%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
8.19
Upside
+122.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -65% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 8.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Value at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 36%.
- P2Large Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $70 from the current $100.34.
- P3China And Product Concentration
Trip ifSales of the lead cleaning equipment line exceed 75% from the current 69.5%.
- P4Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Mixed Earnings And Insider Selling
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.