Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
ABX · Why this verdict
Why Abacus Global Management (ABX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Abacus Global Management shows genuine quality and growth strength with strong cash conversion and a beat-heavy earnings record, but shares have already reached their resistance-based target with a negative risk/reward setup and no identified trading edge.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 7.7 combines strong margins, excellent cash conversion at 211% of net income, and an 8-of-9 Piotroski F-score, alongside a growth score of 10.0 driven by 35% year-over-year revenue growth. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should stay well above 100% of net income and revenue growth should remain in the double digits over the next 12 months for the compounder quality to hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturn on equity is comparatively weak within the quality mix, at a components score of just 3.0, showing not every profitability measure is elite. | ||
Shares have reached the resistance-based target of $11.66 against a current price of $11.86, prompting a downgrade because there is no remaining upside to wait for, producing a slightly negative risk/reward ratio of -0.02. Engine summary | A new resistance level would need to open at least 15% of upside room versus the 7.0% stop distance for the risk/reward to turn favorable again over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterMomentum remains strong at 7.2, with volume still accumulating above the 200-day moving average, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target. | ||
The trailing four quarters show three consecutive beats followed by the most recent quarter coming in slightly in-line at -3.85%, suggesting the beat streak may be cooling even as the average surprise stays positive at 14.8%. Earnings | The company should return to beating estimates in the next reported quarter for the streak to be considered intact rather than fading. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent result was still within roughly 4% of estimate and the average trailing surprise remains solidly positive, so a single in-line print may not signal a real deceleration. | ||
Short interest sits at an elevated 22% of float with implied volatility at 99%, a combination the risk notes flag explicitly even though the setup carries no identifiable trading edge. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline meaningfully and implied volatility should ease over the next 12 months if the bearish positioning is unwinding. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio reads a low 0.25, indicating options activity is skewed toward calls rather than confirming the bearish tone implied by the short interest level. | ||
The engine explicitly finds no clear trading edge in the current setup, yet still assigns high conviction to the position based on data quality and signal alignment, an internal tension in the sizing framework. Position-sizing math | A clear chart pattern or defined edge type should emerge over the next 12 months to resolve the tension between the no-edge classification and the high-conviction sizing. | — |
| CounterHigh volatility, with an average true range of 4.5%, could itself generate tradeable opportunities even without a chart-pattern-based edge. | ||
The quality score of 7.7 combines strong margins, excellent cash conversion at 211% of net income, and an 8-of-9 Piotroski F-score, alongside a growth score of 10.0 driven by 35% year-over-year revenue growth.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should stay well above 100% of net income and revenue growth should remain in the double digits over the next 12 months for the compounder quality to hold.
CounterReturn on equity is comparatively weak within the quality mix, at a components score of just 3.0, showing not every profitability measure is elite.
Shares have reached the resistance-based target of $11.66 against a current price of $11.86, prompting a downgrade because there is no remaining upside to wait for, producing a slightly negative risk/reward ratio of -0.02.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- A new resistance level would need to open at least 15% of upside room versus the 7.0% stop distance for the risk/reward to turn favorable again over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum remains strong at 7.2, with volume still accumulating above the 200-day moving average, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target.
The trailing four quarters show three consecutive beats followed by the most recent quarter coming in slightly in-line at -3.85%, suggesting the beat streak may be cooling even as the average surprise stays positive at 14.8%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to beating estimates in the next reported quarter for the streak to be considered intact rather than fading.
CounterThe most recent result was still within roughly 4% of estimate and the average trailing surprise remains solidly positive, so a single in-line print may not signal a real deceleration.
Short interest sits at an elevated 22% of float with implied volatility at 99%, a combination the risk notes flag explicitly even though the setup carries no identifiable trading edge.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully and implied volatility should ease over the next 12 months if the bearish positioning is unwinding.
CounterThe put/call ratio reads a low 0.25, indicating options activity is skewed toward calls rather than confirming the bearish tone implied by the short interest level.
The engine explicitly finds no clear trading edge in the current setup, yet still assigns high conviction to the position based on data quality and signal alignment, an internal tension in the sizing framework.
—Position-sizing math
- Expectation
- A clear chart pattern or defined edge type should emerge over the next 12 months to resolve the tension between the no-edge classification and the high-conviction sizing.
CounterHigh volatility, with an average true range of 4.5%, could itself generate tradeable opportunities even without a chart-pattern-based edge.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.8 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.6 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,185,650 (0.130% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 25.33
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.55
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.87
Upside
+27.2%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.1, and Value at 8.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.7, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality And Growth Compounder
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 35%.
- P2At Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifRisk/reward ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -0.02.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Cooling
Trip ifEarnings surprise rises above 10% in the next reported quarter, up from the current -3.85%.
- P4High Short Interest Hedge Risk
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float from the current 22%.
- P5No Edge Despite High Conviction
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio exceeds 0.3, replacing the current no-edge classification of -0.02.