Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.57
ABT · Why this verdict
Why Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Abbott Laboratories is a moat-backed medical device maker with strong momentum and a golden cross, but price is within 0.4% of the analyst target, earnings growth is flat and negative news sentiment weighs on the near-term view.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Abbott has a moat score of 7.2 and a strong 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 6.4. Quality breakdown | The quality score should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating and net margin components are only 4.5 and 4.9, so profitability is moderate rather than exceptional. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.1/10, with rising OBV (volume accumulation), price above the 200-day average and a golden cross. Momentum breakdown | Price should stay above the 200-day average with momentum above 6.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat, and the Bollinger and support/resistance scores (1.0 and 0.6) show price near resistance. | ||
Price of $106.20 is only 0.4% below the analyst target of $106.67, against 9.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.05. Warnings | Analysts should raise targets, or price should pull back toward the $100.16 stop zone before a new entry. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPositive momentum and a breakout setup could lead analysts to raise targets, extending the move. | ||
News sentiment is negative (-1.00) and insiders sold $46,850,261 (0.025% of market cap) with no purchases. Bear case | News sentiment should return above 0 and insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe insider sales are small relative to market cap, and negative news flow is often short-lived for diversified large caps. | ||
International sales are 61.0% of revenue, while the earnings growth component is 0.0/10 and the forward P/E is 17.9x with a PEG of 1.52. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should turn positive, bringing the PEG below 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth scores 6.1 and a diversified global footprint reduces dependence on any single market. | ||
Abbott has a moat score of 7.2 and a strong 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 6.4.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterOperating and net margin components are only 4.5 and 4.9, so profitability is moderate rather than exceptional.
Momentum is strong at 7.1/10, with rising OBV (volume accumulation), price above the 200-day average and a golden cross.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stay above the 200-day average with momentum above 6.0.
CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat, and the Bollinger and support/resistance scores (1.0 and 0.6) show price near resistance.
Price of $106.20 is only 0.4% below the analyst target of $106.67, against 9.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.05.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets, or price should pull back toward the $100.16 stop zone before a new entry.
CounterPositive momentum and a breakout setup could lead analysts to raise targets, extending the move.
News sentiment is negative (-1.00) and insiders sold $46,850,261 (0.025% of market cap) with no purchases.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- News sentiment should return above 0 and insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap.
CounterThe insider sales are small relative to market cap, and negative news flow is often short-lived for diversified large caps.
International sales are 61.0% of revenue, while the earnings growth component is 0.0/10 and the forward P/E is 17.9x with a PEG of 1.52.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should turn positive, bringing the PEG below 1.5.
CounterRevenue growth scores 6.1 and a diversified global footprint reduces dependence on any single market.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $46,850,261 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 7.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $80
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-7.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; weakest: Growth at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, Momentum at 6.8, and Quality at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 3.0, Technical at 3.2, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Moat Backed Device Franchise
Trip ifQuality score falls below 5.0 from current 6.4.
- P2Strong Uptrend Breakout
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 7.1.
- P3Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifPrice falls more than 9% below the current $106.20, crossing the $100.16 stop level.
- P4Negative News And Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap in 90 days.
- P5International Concentration Flat Earnings
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 2.0 from current 1.52.