Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.6 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.19
ABT · Why this verdict
Why Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Abbott Laboratories delivers with exceptional consistency — all four recent quarters within a fraction of a percent of consensus — and offers 18.3% headroom to the analyst price target with a roughly 4-to-1 favorable risk/reward; the principal headwinds are a confirmed price downtrend and an unusually extreme put/call ratio that warrants monitoring before adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has delivered at or fractionally above consensus EPS in each of the last four reported quarters — the most recent an in-line result, followed by a slight beat, then two further in-line quarters — demonstrating a pattern of reliable guidance discipline that consistently avoids investor disappointment. Earnings | EPS continues to come in within ±1% of consensus for the next two reported quarters; guidance is maintained or raised. | →Stable |
| CounterA nearly flat average EPS surprise of 0.25% provides minimal positive catalyst energy; without meaningful beats, the stock may struggle to attract the incremental buying needed to resolve the current price downtrend. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at -5.0% per month in a confirmed downtrend, meaning the intermediate-term price trend is working against holders and entry ahead of a technical reversal carries timing risk. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is invalidated if the price recovers above $95.00 and the 200-day moving average slope turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving despite the death cross formation, and RSI at 57 is not approaching oversold territory — the downtrend may be in a late stage rather than accelerating further. | ||
A put/call ratio of 12.44 indicates that options market participants are aggressively hedging or expressing bearish views at an extreme level relative to bullish positioning, representing significant tail-risk sentiment against the stock. Key risks | This pillar is invalidated if the put/call ratio compresses below 3.0, indicating the hedging overhang has materially unwound. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also reflect institutional protective hedges on large long positions rather than outright bearish bets; if the underlying business quality (Piotroski score of 7 out of 9) remains intact, the ratio may normalize without a commensurate price decline. | ||
With 18.3% headroom to the analyst price target of $104.89 from the current price of $88.67 and a risk/reward of roughly 4-to-1 in favor of upside, the setup offers a meaningful return potential relative to the indicated downside. Price targets | Price closes toward the analyst price target of $104.89 over a 12-month period; consensus targets hold or are revised upward. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInternational sales account for 61% of revenues, introducing currency and regulatory risks that could cause analysts to cut targets if international demand softens; concentrated international exposure means analyst upside estimates may be revised away before the stock reaches target. | ||
The company has delivered at or fractionally above consensus EPS in each of the last four reported quarters — the most recent an in-line result, followed by a slight beat, then two further in-line quarters — demonstrating a pattern of reliable guidance discipline that consistently avoids investor disappointment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to come in within ±1% of consensus for the next two reported quarters; guidance is maintained or raised.
CounterA nearly flat average EPS surprise of 0.25% provides minimal positive catalyst energy; without meaningful beats, the stock may struggle to attract the incremental buying needed to resolve the current price downtrend.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at -5.0% per month in a confirmed downtrend, meaning the intermediate-term price trend is working against holders and entry ahead of a technical reversal carries timing risk.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if the price recovers above $95.00 and the 200-day moving average slope turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterMACD is improving despite the death cross formation, and RSI at 57 is not approaching oversold territory — the downtrend may be in a late stage rather than accelerating further.
A put/call ratio of 12.44 indicates that options market participants are aggressively hedging or expressing bearish views at an extreme level relative to bullish positioning, representing significant tail-risk sentiment against the stock.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if the put/call ratio compresses below 3.0, indicating the hedging overhang has materially unwound.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio can also reflect institutional protective hedges on large long positions rather than outright bearish bets; if the underlying business quality (Piotroski score of 7 out of 9) remains intact, the ratio may normalize without a commensurate price decline.
With 18.3% headroom to the analyst price target of $104.89 from the current price of $88.67 and a risk/reward of roughly 4-to-1 in favor of upside, the setup offers a meaningful return potential relative to the indicated downside.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes toward the analyst price target of $104.89 over a 12-month period; consensus targets hold or are revised upward.
CounterInternational sales account for 61% of revenues, introducing currency and regulatory risks that could cause analysts to cut targets if international demand softens; concentrated international exposure means analyst upside estimates may be revised away before the stock reaches target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 133% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 8.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.27
Upside
-3.9%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.9, Technical at 3.4, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Delivery Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -3% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice recovers above $95.00 and stays above for 4 consecutive weeks while the 200-day moving average slope turns positive.
- P3Extreme Put Call Ratio Hedge Demand
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 3.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4Favorable Risk Reward Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $95.00, reducing implied upside to less than 7% from current levels.