Value
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.65
ABNB · Why this verdict
Why Airbnb (ABNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Airbnb commands a wide economic moat with strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion (127% of net income), but three consecutive earnings misses and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target leave the risk/reward unfavorable at current prices — the setup warrants patience rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters, with an average miss of approximately -11.6%, indicating that either guidance has become too optimistic or near-term business performance is deteriorating below expectations. Earnings | This pillar is invalidated if EPS surprise turns positive and is sustained for two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarter preceding the three-miss streak produced a 10.1% positive surprise, suggesting the capacity to beat estimates exists; the miss pattern may reflect temporary estimation noise rather than structural deterioration. | ||
Airbnb delivers strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 127% of net income, underpinned by a wide economic moat — together these metrics suggest durable earnings power through cycles. Quality breakdown | Gross margins hold above 18% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four reported quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters; if execution pressure persists, it can erode the quality metrics this thesis rests on. | ||
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and shows bullish MACD alongside rising on-balance volume — suggesting the intermediate-term price trend is constructive. Chart pattern detection | Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume rising and RSI staying above 50 over the next two months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith a forward P/E of 22.9x and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target, a single earnings disappointment could quickly reverse the current price setup. | ||
At the current price of $138.96, only about 3.6% of upside remains to the analyst price target of $143.96, and the risk/reward of 0.57-to-1 is unfavorable — the potential downside materially outweighs the available upside at current levels. Price targets | This pillar is invalidated if the stock pulls back to create wider upside to target, or if analyst targets are revised materially higher. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA wide economic moat and strong cash generation can sustain a premium multiple indefinitely; thin upside to the current target may simply reflect fair value rather than overvaluation, and the quality franchise argues against a de-rating. | ||
The company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters, with an average miss of approximately -11.6%, indicating that either guidance has become too optimistic or near-term business performance is deteriorating below expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if EPS surprise turns positive and is sustained for two consecutive quarters.
CounterThe quarter preceding the three-miss streak produced a 10.1% positive surprise, suggesting the capacity to beat estimates exists; the miss pattern may reflect temporary estimation noise rather than structural deterioration.
Airbnb delivers strong margins (20%) and exceptional free cash flow conversion at 127% of net income, underpinned by a wide economic moat — together these metrics suggest durable earnings power through cycles.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margins hold above 18% and free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe company has missed analyst EPS estimates in each of the three most recently reported quarters; if execution pressure persists, it can erode the quality metrics this thesis rests on.
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages, and shows bullish MACD alongside rising on-balance volume — suggesting the intermediate-term price trend is constructive.
↑ImprovingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average with on-balance volume rising and RSI staying above 50 over the next two months.
CounterWith a forward P/E of 22.9x and only about 3.6% headroom to the analyst price target, a single earnings disappointment could quickly reverse the current price setup.
At the current price of $138.96, only about 3.6% of upside remains to the analyst price target of $143.96, and the risk/reward of 0.57-to-1 is unfavorable — the potential downside materially outweighs the available upside at current levels.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- This pillar is invalidated if the stock pulls back to create wider upside to target, or if analyst targets are revised materially higher.
CounterA wide economic moat and strong cash generation can sustain a premium multiple indefinitely; thin upside to the current target may simply reflect fair value rather than overvaluation, and the quality franchise argues against a de-rating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 89)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $365,106,802 (0.330% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.96
Upside
-14.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of -0.96.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Quality at 8.0, and Growth at 7.6; the weakest are Value at 3.4, Catalyst at 3.6, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Franchise Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Momentum Breakout Above 200ma
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 while price trades below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Repeated Earnings Estimate Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Unfavorable AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $160.00, creating more than 15% upside from current levels.