Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.43
ABNB · Why this verdict
Why Airbnb (ABNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Airbnb is a wide-moat compounder with 35% ROE, 20% margins and a passing Rule of 40, but weak momentum, thin upside to the analyst target and heavy insider selling keep the near-term setup range-bound.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Airbnb has excellent ROE of 35%, margins of 20%, a wide economic moat, a Rule of 40 score of 41 and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.0. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near 20% and the Rule of 40 should stay above 40 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTravel is a cyclical consumer category, so margins and growth could compress sharply in a demand slowdown. | ||
Growth is solid (revenue 6.6, earnings 8.7 out of 10) against a forward P/E of 26.5x and PEG of 1.41. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should keep the PEG at or below 1.5 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 26.5x is not cheap and leaves little room if growth slows. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.1/10 with falling OBV even though price remains above the 200-day average and quality is high at 8.0. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should recover above 4.5 as a breakout above resistance develops. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling OBV and a flat MACD show distribution, and the setup has not produced a breakout. | ||
Price of $164.39 sits 2.9% below the analyst target of $169.24, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.59. Targets | Reward-to-risk should improve above 1.5 through a pullback toward the $156.17 entry target or higher targets. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target carries only an 8% haircut, so analysts may have upside room beyond the stated target. | ||
Insiders sold $230,750,012 (0.234% of market cap) across 83 sales in 90 days with no purchases. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should fall below 0.1% of market cap per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge selling by founders and executives is often scheduled and tax-driven rather than a view on the business. | ||
Airbnb has excellent ROE of 35%, margins of 20%, a wide economic moat, a Rule of 40 score of 41 and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near 20% and the Rule of 40 should stay above 40 over 12 months.
CounterTravel is a cyclical consumer category, so margins and growth could compress sharply in a demand slowdown.
Growth is solid (revenue 6.6, earnings 8.7 out of 10) against a forward P/E of 26.5x and PEG of 1.41.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should keep the PEG at or below 1.5 over 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 26.5x is not cheap and leaves little room if growth slows.
Momentum is weak at 3.1/10 with falling OBV even though price remains above the 200-day average and quality is high at 8.0.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 as a breakout above resistance develops.
CounterFalling OBV and a flat MACD show distribution, and the setup has not produced a breakout.
Price of $164.39 sits 2.9% below the analyst target of $169.24, against 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.59.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should improve above 1.5 through a pullback toward the $156.17 entry target or higher targets.
CounterThe analyst target carries only an 8% haircut, so analysts may have upside room beyond the stated target.
Insiders sold $230,750,012 (0.234% of market cap) across 83 sales in 90 days with no purchases.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should fall below 0.1% of market cap per quarter.
CounterLarge selling by founders and executives is often scheduled and tax-driven rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $228,108,491 (0.216% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $90
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $167.97 has reached target $169.45. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.14
Upside
+0.9%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.0 and growth 7.6 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.14 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.0, Growth at 7.6, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.6, Insider at 3.6, and Value at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% from current 20%.
- P2Solid Growth Fair Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Momentum High Quality
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 2.0 from current 3.1.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $148.01 stop level, more than 10% below current $164.39.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap in 90 days.