Value
8.2/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AAUC · Why this verdict
Why Allied Gold (AAUC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens attractively valued on both price-to-sales and enterprise value multiples, offering the potential for meaningful re-rating if underlying fundamentals continue to improve. Bull case | Valuation multiples contract toward peers as improving cash flow metrics justify a higher multiple, or the stock price advances toward the $27.95 resistance target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn attractively valued stock can remain inexpensive for extended periods if there is no near-term catalyst to close the valuation gap; with no upcoming earnings date in the data and limited upside to the near-term target, the discount may persist absent a re-rating event. | ||
With the stock about 6% below the $27.95 near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current price does not offer compelling asymmetry, making the setup better suited for existing holders than new capital deployment. Price targets | A price pullback improves upside to the $27.95 target to above 12%, enhancing the reward-to-risk ratio to a more attractive level before adding exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum gate has passed and the technical trend remains intact above the 200-day moving average; if the uptrend continues and the stock advances through the $27.95 target, waiting for a better entry could mean missing the bulk of the move. | ||
The stock's RSI has pulled back to 39 — near oversold territory — while remaining above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, presenting a technically constructive setup consistent with a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 over the next three to six months, on-balance volume continues its upward trend, and price advances toward the $27.95 resistance level. | →Stable |
| CounterA pullback in an uptrend can deepen into a trend reversal; if RSI continues lower from 39 and price breaks the 200-day moving average, what appears to be a constructive consolidation could become a more significant deterioration in the technical structure. | ||
The company generates free cash flow at a 24% FCF margin and a 9.9% FCF yield, supported by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a financially sound business with strong cash generation relative to its market value. Quality breakdown | FCF margin remains above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the company's financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterAn FCF margin of 24% and strong Piotroski score reflect current operational health, but with no competitive moat identified, the financial quality metrics may not be defensible if operating conditions become less favorable. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued on both price-to-sales and enterprise value multiples, offering the potential for meaningful re-rating if underlying fundamentals continue to improve.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples contract toward peers as improving cash flow metrics justify a higher multiple, or the stock price advances toward the $27.95 resistance target over the next 12 months.
CounterAn attractively valued stock can remain inexpensive for extended periods if there is no near-term catalyst to close the valuation gap; with no upcoming earnings date in the data and limited upside to the near-term target, the discount may persist absent a re-rating event.
With the stock about 6% below the $27.95 near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current price does not offer compelling asymmetry, making the setup better suited for existing holders than new capital deployment.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price pullback improves upside to the $27.95 target to above 12%, enhancing the reward-to-risk ratio to a more attractive level before adding exposure.
CounterThe momentum gate has passed and the technical trend remains intact above the 200-day moving average; if the uptrend continues and the stock advances through the $27.95 target, waiting for a better entry could mean missing the bulk of the move.
The stock's RSI has pulled back to 39 — near oversold territory — while remaining above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, presenting a technically constructive setup consistent with a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 over the next three to six months, on-balance volume continues its upward trend, and price advances toward the $27.95 resistance level.
CounterA pullback in an uptrend can deepen into a trend reversal; if RSI continues lower from 39 and price breaks the 200-day moving average, what appears to be a constructive consolidation could become a more significant deterioration in the technical structure.
The company generates free cash flow at a 24% FCF margin and a 9.9% FCF yield, supported by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a financially sound business with strong cash generation relative to its market value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin remains above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the company's financial health.
CounterAn FCF margin of 24% and strong Piotroski score reflect current operational health, but with no competitive moat identified, the financial quality metrics may not be defensible if operating conditions become less favorable.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allied Gold Corporation offers an attractive valuation entry alongside a constructive technical pullback in an ongoing uptrend — RSI at 39, volume accumulation, and position above the 200-day moving average — supported by an FCF margin of 24% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9; however, with only about 6% of headroom to the near-term $27.95 target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current setup favors patience over deploying new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 24%, FCF yield 10.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+7.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Peer rank at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6, and Growth at 5.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.2, Catalyst at 5.0, and Technical at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Entry Point
Trip ifPrice breaks above $27.95 for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P2Uptrend Pullback Accumulation
Trip ifPrice falls below $24.00 for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P3Solid Fcf Quality Balance Sheet
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Limited Near Term Risk Reward
Trip ifPrice falls below $25.00 for 3 consecutive sessions while the $27.95 target holds.