Alcoa (AA) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

Adjusted EPS

$1.82

Estimate

$1.51

Surprise

+20.2%

Score at report (before → after)

6.8 → 6.9/10

Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.

Alcoa (AA) beat the $1.51 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.82 — a large 20.2% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.8/10) to Sell at 6.9/10 after the report.

TrendMatrix currently rates AA Sell at 6.6/10.

2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +20.2% surprise compares with a +8.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-01-21.

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current price

$39.06

Price target

$47.50

Stop

$36.48

Upside to target

+21.6%

Reward-to-risk

2.9:1

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.

Industry

Aluminum

Market cap

$10.71B

P/E (fwd)

7.8

P/E (ttm)

7.1

52-week range

$35.12–$84.38

Off 52-week high

53.7%

RSI (14)

40

Volume vs avg

0.40×

Score today

6.6/10