Alcoa (AA) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.82
- Estimate
- $1.51
- Surprise
- +20.2%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.6 → 6.7/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Alcoa (AA) beat the $1.51 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.82 — a large 20.2% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.6/10) to Sell at 6.7/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates AA Sell at 6.7/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +20.2% surprise compares with a +8.0% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum and alumina
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $40.42
- Price target
- $51.98
- Stop
- $37.78
- Upside to target
- +28.6%
- Reward-to-risk
- 4.4:1
The stock trades at 8.4× trailing but 7.1× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.8× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-16 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
AA at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $10.67B
- P/E (fwd)
- 7.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.4
- 52-week range
- $35.12–$84.38
- Off 52-week high
- 52.1%
- RSI (14)
- 33
- Volume vs avg
- 1.78×
- Score today
- 6.7/10