Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 5.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.49
A · Why this verdict
Why Agilent Technologies (A) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Agilent is a wide-moat, high-quality diagnostics and research business with strong margins and a 9/9 Piotroski score, but the stock is trading above the analyst target with weak momentum and negative reward-to-risk, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Agilent is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins around 20%, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score that supports durable returns. Quality breakdown | Margins and moat-driven returns should hold, keeping quality score above 7 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 74% FCF/NI, suggesting reported profits may not fully convert to cash. | ||
Growth scores are modest (revenue growth 4.5, earnings growth 3.7 out of 10) against a forward P/E of 26.0x and PEG of 1.48, so valuation leaves little margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should accelerate enough to bring PEG toward or below 1.3 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHealthcare sector tailwinds and a quality premium may sustain a 26x multiple even with modest growth. | ||
The stock has moved above the analyst target of $163.85 (upside_pct -6.3%), leaving limited upside and negative reward-to-risk of -0.95 at the current price of $174.87. Warnings | Analyst targets should be revised up toward the current price, or price consolidates, within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWide-moat compounders often justify premium valuations and targets lag price, so analysts may simply raise targets. | ||
Momentum score is 4.3/10 with falling OBV (volume distribution) even though the stock sits only 4.4% from its 52-week high and above the 200-day MA. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 with OBV turning positive if the uptrend is intact. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average with a 52-week position score of 9.1, so the long-term trend is still constructive. | ||
Insider activity is minimal, with only one sale totaling $95,972 (0.000% of market cap), so insider selling is not a meaningful negative. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should remain below 0.1% of market cap with no cluster of sales. | →Stable |
| CounterZero insider buying over 90 days and a BEARISH signal show insiders are not adding conviction. | ||
Agilent is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong margins around 20%, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score that supports durable returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and moat-driven returns should hold, keeping quality score above 7 over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 74% FCF/NI, suggesting reported profits may not fully convert to cash.
Growth scores are modest (revenue growth 4.5, earnings growth 3.7 out of 10) against a forward P/E of 26.0x and PEG of 1.48, so valuation leaves little margin of safety.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should accelerate enough to bring PEG toward or below 1.3 over 12 months.
CounterHealthcare sector tailwinds and a quality premium may sustain a 26x multiple even with modest growth.
The stock has moved above the analyst target of $163.85 (upside_pct -6.3%), leaving limited upside and negative reward-to-risk of -0.95 at the current price of $174.87.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be revised up toward the current price, or price consolidates, within 12 months.
CounterWide-moat compounders often justify premium valuations and targets lag price, so analysts may simply raise targets.
Momentum score is 4.3/10 with falling OBV (volume distribution) even though the stock sits only 4.4% from its 52-week high and above the 200-day MA.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 with OBV turning positive if the uptrend is intact.
CounterPrice remains above the 200-day moving average with a 52-week position score of 9.1, so the long-term trend is still constructive.
Insider activity is minimal, with only one sale totaling $95,972 (0.000% of market cap), so insider selling is not a meaningful negative.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should remain below 0.1% of market cap with no cluster of sales.
CounterZero insider buying over 90 days and a BEARISH signal show insiders are not adding conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $95,972 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.7) with weak momentum (3.6)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 7.9; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Quality at 7.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Insider at 4.0, and Value at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Quality Compounder
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.0 from current 7.7.
- P2Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio stays below -1.5 as price rises more than 15% above the analyst target.
- P3Fading Momentum Near High
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from current 4.3.
- P4Modest Growth Fair Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 2.0 from current 1.48.
- P5Negligible Insider Pressure
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap in 90 days.