Value
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
UHAL · Why this verdict
Why U-Haul Holding (UHAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
U-Haul Holding Company scores a quality rating of just 2.0 out of 10, has missed earnings in all four recent quarters by an average of 11%, and carries a severely negative free cash flow quality flag, making the current setup unattractive despite near-term price momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite the fundamental concerns, RSI has reached 76 while the moving average slope is flat-to-negative — a combination that often precedes late-cycle distribution where momentum fades after buyers have already been rewarded. Momentum breakdown | RSI falls below 60 and price pulls back more than 5% as overbought conditions normalize over the next 3 months | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation via rising OBV suggests genuine buying rather than a thin-volume squeeze, and strong momentum of 7.0 may reflect a real recovery in demand for moving and storage services | ||
U-Haul's quality score of 2.0 out of 10 falls far below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, with free cash flow representing negative 2,056% of net income — a severe red flag indicating the company is not generating sufficient cash to cover reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as free cash flow improves and the earnings quality concern resolves | →Stable |
| CounterCapital-intensive rental fleet businesses structurally require heavy capex that depresses free cash flow; the quality flag may overstate the risk if fleet investment is driving future revenue capacity | ||
U-Haul has missed earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 11.2%, and analyst estimates have fallen 41.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a deteriorating earnings trajectory. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and analyst estimate revisions stabilize | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum score of 7.0 and OBV accumulation suggest institutional buyers are looking past the near-term earnings weakness, potentially anticipating a recovery in the rental market | ||
The upside of 10.8% against a downside of 15.0% produces an asymmetry ratio of 0.72 — well below the minimum required 1.5 — with high short interest of 21% adding further downside pressure if sentiment turns. Key risks | Price corrects to a level where upside exceeds 18% against comparable downside, restoring an asymmetry ratio above 1.5 | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest of 21% creates potential for short-covering rallies if any positive catalyst emerges, which could rapidly close the asymmetry gap | ||
Despite the fundamental concerns, RSI has reached 76 while the moving average slope is flat-to-negative — a combination that often precedes late-cycle distribution where momentum fades after buyers have already been rewarded.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI falls below 60 and price pulls back more than 5% as overbought conditions normalize over the next 3 months
CounterVolume accumulation via rising OBV suggests genuine buying rather than a thin-volume squeeze, and strong momentum of 7.0 may reflect a real recovery in demand for moving and storage services
U-Haul's quality score of 2.0 out of 10 falls far below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, with free cash flow representing negative 2,056% of net income — a severe red flag indicating the company is not generating sufficient cash to cover reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as free cash flow improves and the earnings quality concern resolves
CounterCapital-intensive rental fleet businesses structurally require heavy capex that depresses free cash flow; the quality flag may overstate the risk if fleet investment is driving future revenue capacity
U-Haul has missed earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 11.2%, and analyst estimates have fallen 41.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a deteriorating earnings trajectory.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and analyst estimate revisions stabilize
CounterStrong momentum score of 7.0 and OBV accumulation suggest institutional buyers are looking past the near-term earnings weakness, potentially anticipating a recovery in the rental market
The upside of 10.8% against a downside of 15.0% produces an asymmetry ratio of 0.72 — well below the minimum required 1.5 — with high short interest of 21% adding further downside pressure if sentiment turns.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Price corrects to a level where upside exceeds 18% against comparable downside, restoring an asymmetry ratio above 1.5
CounterHigh short interest of 21% creates potential for short-covering rallies if any positive catalyst emerges, which could rapidly close the asymmetry gap
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -2056% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 85 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-41.2%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -41.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.35
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 6.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.3, Value at 6.0, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 1.5, Quality at 2.0, and Peer rank at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1U-Haul's quality score of 2.0 out of 10 falls far below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, with free cash flow representing negative 2,056% of net income — a severe red flag indicating the company is not generating sufficient cash to cover reported earnings.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income stays below negative 500% for at least 2 more consecutive reported periods
- P2U-Haul has missed earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 11.2%, and analyst estimates have fallen 41.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a deteriorating earnings trajectory.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -15% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters
- P3Despite the fundamental concerns, RSI has reached 76 while the moving average slope is flat-to-negative — a combination that often precedes late-cycle distribution where momentum fades after buyers have already been rewarded.
Trip ifRSI rises above 80 or price exceeds $70, more than 12% above current $62.08, deepening the overbought condition
- P4The upside of 10.8% against a downside of 15.0% produces an asymmetry ratio of 0.72 — well below the minimum required 1.5 — with high short interest of 21% adding further downside pressure if sentiment turns.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float or price drops below $57.74 stop-loss