Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.63
- ▸Attractively valued
UGI · Why this verdict
Why UGI (UGI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UGI Corporation trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 10.3x and ranks favorably against regulated gas utility peers on price-to-earnings, but a confirmed death cross and negative momentum create a timing headwind that prevents a compelling near-term entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
UGI trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x with strong peer rank scores, ranking attractively versus other regulated gas utilities on price-to-earnings, suggesting the market is applying an unwarranted discount relative to the sector. Peer-rank breakdown | Forward P/E multiple expands toward 12x or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the death cross resolves | →Stable |
| CounterThe low multiple may be justified given earnings quality concerns — free cash flow is only 7% of net income — and the business scored below average on quality at 5.1 out of 10 | ||
A confirmed death cross technical pattern along with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average represents a hard momentum block at the current price, indicating that price trend conditions are unfavorable for new entries. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross resolves and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, removing the hard technical block | →Stable |
| CounterOBV is rising (volume accumulation) and MACD is improving, suggesting the death cross may be in a late stage with recovery underway | ||
Free cash flow represents only 7% of net income, flagged as a red flag by the quality scoring engine, meaning UGI's reported earnings are poorly supported by actual cash generation — a critical concern for a leveraged utility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 50% within 12 months, resolving the earnings quality red flag | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a current ratio above 4 suggest the balance sheet is not in immediate distress, and utility capital expenditure cycles can temporarily suppress FCF | ||
With upside of 7.2% and downside of 5.0%, the asymmetry ratio of 1.44 falls just below the minimum required 1.5, leaving the setup in a marginal zone where a small price decline would restore a favorable entry. Targets | Price falls below $33 or analyst target rises, pushing upside above 10% and restoring an asymmetry ratio greater than 1.5 | →Stable |
| CounterThe 26% analyst consensus upside to a haircut target of $36.83 offers a meaningful long-term reward if momentum headwinds dissipate in coming months | ||
UGI trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x with strong peer rank scores, ranking attractively versus other regulated gas utilities on price-to-earnings, suggesting the market is applying an unwarranted discount relative to the sector.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple expands toward 12x or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the death cross resolves
CounterThe low multiple may be justified given earnings quality concerns — free cash flow is only 7% of net income — and the business scored below average on quality at 5.1 out of 10
A confirmed death cross technical pattern along with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average represents a hard momentum block at the current price, indicating that price trend conditions are unfavorable for new entries.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 12 months, removing the hard technical block
CounterOBV is rising (volume accumulation) and MACD is improving, suggesting the death cross may be in a late stage with recovery underway
Free cash flow represents only 7% of net income, flagged as a red flag by the quality scoring engine, meaning UGI's reported earnings are poorly supported by actual cash generation — a critical concern for a leveraged utility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 50% within 12 months, resolving the earnings quality red flag
CounterPiotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a current ratio above 4 suggest the balance sheet is not in immediate distress, and utility capital expenditure cycles can temporarily suppress FCF
With upside of 7.2% and downside of 5.0%, the asymmetry ratio of 1.44 falls just below the minimum required 1.5, leaving the setup in a marginal zone where a small price decline would restore a favorable entry.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price falls below $33 or analyst target rises, pushing upside above 10% and restoring an asymmetry ratio greater than 1.5
CounterThe 26% analyst consensus upside to a haircut target of $36.83 offers a meaningful long-term reward if momentum headwinds dissipate in coming months
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 7% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $852,494 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.09
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.09 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Sentiment at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 3.0, Technical at 3.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1UGI trades at a forward P/E of 10.3x with strong peer rank scores, ranking attractively versus other regulated gas utilities on price-to-earnings, suggesting the market is applying an unwarranted discount relative to the sector.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple falls below 8x, indicating further re-rating downward
- P2A confirmed death cross technical pattern along with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average represents a hard momentum block at the current price, indicating that price trend conditions are unfavorable for new entries.
Trip ifPrice drops below $30, more than 12% below the current $34.36, deepening the downtrend
- P3Free cash flow represents only 7% of net income, flagged as a red flag by the quality scoring engine, meaning UGI's reported earnings are poorly supported by actual cash generation — a critical concern for a leveraged utility.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income stays below 20% for at least 2 consecutive reported periods
- P4With upside of 7.2% and downside of 5.0%, the asymmetry ratio of 1.44 falls just below the minimum required 1.5, leaving the setup in a marginal zone where a small price decline would restore a favorable entry.
Trip ifPrice rises above $36.83 before the death cross resolves, reducing remaining upside below 0%