Value
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 1.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 176.2x
- ▸PEG: 6.09
- ▸Expensive valuation
TSLA · Why this verdict
Why Tesla (TSLA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TSLA at $433.59 fails V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE with bear_case stacking 'Consecutive earnings misses (2)', target reached (-12.6% upside), expensive valuation (Forward P/E 172.8x, PEG 5.97), elevated put/call 3.23 and overall score 4.3/10 — action_note 'Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Value subscore 1.2 with notes 'Expensive valuation' (Forward P/E 172.8x, PEG 5.97) combined with quality 4.3 and bear_case 'Weak overall score: 4.3/10' — pays growth-stock multiples for low-quality margins (op margin 1.7/10). Bear case (item 3) | Forward P/E compresses below 100x or operating_margin component rises above 5.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterTSLA quality bridges include FCF/NI 136% conversion + Piotroski 8/9 — quality scoring under-weights cash generation versus margins; the multiple bridges via robotaxi/optionality, not auto-margin. | ||
Bear_case 'Consecutive earnings misses (2)' with earnings.miss_count 2, beat_count 1, avg_surprise_pct -9.68% — Q1 2026 missed by -36.5% and Q3 2025 by -12.2%, catalyst notes 'Earnings concerns: 1B/2M'. Bear case (item 2) | Beat count recovers to 3+/4 with avg_surprise_pct turning positive by the 2026-07-22 print. | →stable |
| CounterAuto cycle bottoms produce 1-2 quarters of EPS compression as price cuts hit gross margins; the miss may be the trough, not a continuing trend. | ||
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -12.6 vs downside_pct 15.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $444.33 is 2.5% above $433.59 spot. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $500 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterTSLA targets routinely whipsaw on autonomy/robotaxi news; a single product narrative can re-rate targets 30%+ in days, but the base case is no near-term catalyst. | ||
Risk.notes 'Elevated put/call: 3.23' and options.put_call_ratio 3.234 with key_risks 'Elevated put/call ratio: 3.23' — derivatives positioning is at extreme bearish levels for a single ticker. Options positioning | put_call_ratio retreats below 2.0 within 2 refreshes signaling derivatives capitulation. | →stable |
| CounterPut-heavy positioning often marks max-pessimism inflection points; TSLA's reflexive narrative can drive aggressive short-covering on any positive surprise. | ||
Insider signal BEARISH with 33 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -57,483 shares (last 2026-05-13) — sustained insider distribution at a price near the upper half of the 52w range (52w_position 7.4/10). Insider transaction read | Sell_count drops below 10 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterTSLA insider sales are dominated by 10b5-1 plans + option exercises; without dollar values (net_value_90d null) the bearish signal may overstate discretionary sentiment. | ||
Value subscore 1.2 with notes 'Expensive valuation' (Forward P/E 172.8x, PEG 5.97) combined with quality 4.3 and bear_case 'Weak overall score: 4.3/10' — pays growth-stock multiples for low-quality margins (op margin 1.7/10).
→stableBear case (item 3)
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 100x or operating_margin component rises above 5.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterTSLA quality bridges include FCF/NI 136% conversion + Piotroski 8/9 — quality scoring under-weights cash generation versus margins; the multiple bridges via robotaxi/optionality, not auto-margin.
Bear_case 'Consecutive earnings misses (2)' with earnings.miss_count 2, beat_count 1, avg_surprise_pct -9.68% — Q1 2026 missed by -36.5% and Q3 2025 by -12.2%, catalyst notes 'Earnings concerns: 1B/2M'.
→stableBear case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Beat count recovers to 3+/4 with avg_surprise_pct turning positive by the 2026-07-22 print.
CounterAuto cycle bottoms produce 1-2 quarters of EPS compression as price cuts hit gross margins; the miss may be the trough, not a continuing trend.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -12.6 vs downside_pct 15.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $444.33 is 2.5% above $433.59 spot.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $500 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterTSLA targets routinely whipsaw on autonomy/robotaxi news; a single product narrative can re-rate targets 30%+ in days, but the base case is no near-term catalyst.
Risk.notes 'Elevated put/call: 3.23' and options.put_call_ratio 3.234 with key_risks 'Elevated put/call ratio: 3.23' — derivatives positioning is at extreme bearish levels for a single ticker.
→stableOptions positioning
- Expectation
- put_call_ratio retreats below 2.0 within 2 refreshes signaling derivatives capitulation.
CounterPut-heavy positioning often marks max-pessimism inflection points; TSLA's reflexive narrative can drive aggressive short-covering on any positive surprise.
Insider signal BEARISH with 33 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -57,483 shares (last 2026-05-13) — sustained insider distribution at a price near the upper half of the 52w range (52w_position 7.4/10).
→stableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Sell_count drops below 10 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh.
CounterTSLA insider sales are dominated by 10b5-1 plans + option exercises; without dollar values (net_value_90d null) the bearish signal may overstate discretionary sentiment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $21,508,554 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 53, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.79>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Value at 1.2, Catalyst at 3.6, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bear_case 'Consecutive earnings misses (2)' with earnings.miss_count 2, beat_count 1, avg_surprise_pct -9.68% — Q1 2026 missed by -36.5% and Q3 2025 by -12.2%, catalyst notes 'Earnings concerns: 1B/2M'.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 0/4 with avg_surprise_pct below -20%.
- P2V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -12.6 vs downside_pct 15.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining' — TP $444.33 is 2.5% above $433.59 spot.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio stays below -0.5 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P3Value subscore 1.2 with notes 'Expensive valuation' (Forward P/E 172.8x, PEG 5.97) combined with quality 4.3 and bear_case 'Weak overall score: 4.3/10' — pays growth-stock multiples for low-quality margins (op margin 1.7/10).
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 200x or operating_margin component drops below 1.0.
- P4Risk.notes 'Elevated put/call: 3.23' and options.put_call_ratio 3.234 with key_risks 'Elevated put/call ratio: 3.23' — derivatives positioning is at extreme bearish levels for a single ticker.
Trip ifput_call_ratio rises above 5.0 with negative news event in last 30 days.
- P5Insider signal BEARISH with 33 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -57,483 shares (last 2026-05-13) — sustained insider distribution at a price near the upper half of the 52w range (52w_position 7.4/10).
Trip ifInsider sell_count rises above 60 over the next 90 days.