Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
TPG · Why this verdict
Why TPG (TPG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TPG Inc. is an alternative asset manager with analyst upside of 29% and a recovering technical setup after a death cross, but has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a -107.76% miss when it reported a loss instead of the expected gain — raising serious questions about earnings visibility and management guidance accuracy.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TPG has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a loss of $0.05 per share against an expected gain of $0.64, a -107.76% negative surprise that indicates either significant realized investment losses or fundamental guidance errors. Earnings | EPS surprise returns to positive territory in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, and the average miss magnitude shrinks below 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterAlternative asset managers report earnings that include mark-to-market gains and losses on investments, making quarterly results inherently volatile; a single large miss may reflect timing of realized versus unrealized items rather than deteriorating business fundamentals. | ||
The stock is in a technical recovery pattern with MACD improving and RSI at 58 despite being below the 200-day moving average, while analysts have a price target implying 29% upside, suggesting the fundamental valuation case has not been abandoned despite recent earnings weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 9 months and analyst price targets are maintained above $48. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovery patterns in financial services stocks with three consecutive earnings misses frequently fail; the improving MACD in the context of a death cross has a high false-positive rate, and analysts may not yet have reset targets lower. | ||
The data flags a yield trap warning — a high dividend yield combined with unsafe payout sustainability — indicating the current dividend may not be maintainable at the current level if earnings continue to disappoint. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payments are maintained at current levels for at least the next 4 quarters without a cut or suspension. | →Stable |
| CounterAlternative asset managers often maintain dividends through fee income even when performance-based revenue is volatile; TPG's gross margins of 100% of revenue suggest strong base fee economics that could support the dividend independently of performance fees. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates that TPG's balance sheet and financial position remain healthy on multiple standardized dimensions despite the earnings volatility, suggesting the earnings problems may be income statement timing issues rather than structural balance sheet deterioration. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 6 or above through the next annual reporting cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores for asset managers can diverge from economic reality when marks-to-market inflate asset values temporarily; if portfolio valuations reset lower, the score could fall sharply. | ||
TPG has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a loss of $0.05 per share against an expected gain of $0.64, a -107.76% negative surprise that indicates either significant realized investment losses or fundamental guidance errors.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise returns to positive territory in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, and the average miss magnitude shrinks below 20%.
CounterAlternative asset managers report earnings that include mark-to-market gains and losses on investments, making quarterly results inherently volatile; a single large miss may reflect timing of realized versus unrealized items rather than deteriorating business fundamentals.
The stock is in a technical recovery pattern with MACD improving and RSI at 58 despite being below the 200-day moving average, while analysts have a price target implying 29% upside, suggesting the fundamental valuation case has not been abandoned despite recent earnings weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 9 months and analyst price targets are maintained above $48.
CounterRecovery patterns in financial services stocks with three consecutive earnings misses frequently fail; the improving MACD in the context of a death cross has a high false-positive rate, and analysts may not yet have reset targets lower.
The data flags a yield trap warning — a high dividend yield combined with unsafe payout sustainability — indicating the current dividend may not be maintainable at the current level if earnings continue to disappoint.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payments are maintained at current levels for at least the next 4 quarters without a cut or suspension.
CounterAlternative asset managers often maintain dividends through fee income even when performance-based revenue is volatile; TPG's gross margins of 100% of revenue suggest strong base fee economics that could support the dividend independently of performance fees.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates that TPG's balance sheet and financial position remain healthy on multiple standardized dimensions despite the earnings volatility, suggesting the earnings problems may be income statement timing issues rather than structural balance sheet deterioration.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 6 or above through the next annual reporting cycle.
CounterPiotroski scores for asset managers can diverge from economic reality when marks-to-market inflate asset values temporarily; if portfolio valuations reset lower, the score could fall sharply.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 0.1 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $32
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.75
Upside
+27.2%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.43>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.75 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Peer rank at 1.6, and Catalyst at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1TPG has missed earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a loss of $0.05 per share against an expected gain of $0.64, a -107.76% negative surprise that indicates either significant realized investment losses or fundamental guidance errors.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -50% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating earnings misses are deepening rather than normalizing.
- P2The stock is in a technical recovery pattern with MACD improving and RSI at 58 despite being below the 200-day moving average, while analysts have a price target implying 29% upside, suggesting the fundamental valuation case has not been abandoned despite recent earnings weakness.
Trip ifPrice falls below $40, more than 8% below the current $43.49, and analyst targets are revised below $45.
- P3The data flags a yield trap warning — a high dividend yield combined with unsafe payout sustainability — indicating the current dividend may not be maintainable at the current level if earnings continue to disappoint.
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 20% below the current level, confirming the yield trap concern is materializing.
- P4A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates that TPG's balance sheet and financial position remain healthy on multiple standardized dimensions despite the earnings volatility, suggesting the earnings problems may be income statement timing issues rather than structural balance sheet deterioration.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 in the next annual reporting cycle, signaling broad financial health deterioration.