Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
TCBI · Why this verdict
Why Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Texas Capital Bancshares has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of nearly 20%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 12.1 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.17, and earns strong margins of 29% — but the stock has already reached the analyst price target, leaving little near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Texas Capital has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters, averaging nearly 20% above consensus estimates, demonstrating that management is consistently delivering results ahead of market expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4-quarter beat streak can attract higher analyst estimates that are harder to clear; the current elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.0 and high implied volatility of 79% suggest options markets are pricing in meaningful downside risk. | ||
The bank trades at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of just 0.17, combining strong earnings growth momentum with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.1 times — among the more attractive combinations of growth and valuation in the regional bank peer group. Valuation breakdown | The price-to-earnings growth ratio stays below 0.5 and forward earnings estimates rise at least 5% over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst consensus price target has already been reached, meaning the market has largely priced in these favorable fundamentals; further re-rating requires earnings acceleration beyond current estimates. | ||
Net margins of 29% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Texas Capital operates with above-average efficiency and financial discipline relative to regional bank peers. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank has no identified competitive moat score, meaning margin strength may be cyclical rather than structural and could compress if the interest rate environment shifts adversely. | ||
The current stock price of $100.73 has effectively reached the analyst consensus target, leaving only 0.2% measured upside — an asymmetry ratio of negative 1.0 — which limits the reward available to new buyers at current levels. Targets | Either earnings estimates rise enough to lift the consensus target above $110, or the stock pulls back below $95 to restore a more favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks that exceed analyst targets on strong fundamental momentum often see target upgrades quickly; the 4-quarter beat streak increases the probability that analysts revise targets upward after the next report. | ||
Texas Capital has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters, averaging nearly 20% above consensus estimates, demonstrating that management is consistently delivering results ahead of market expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat track record.
CounterA 4-quarter beat streak can attract higher analyst estimates that are harder to clear; the current elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.0 and high implied volatility of 79% suggest options markets are pricing in meaningful downside risk.
The bank trades at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of just 0.17, combining strong earnings growth momentum with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.1 times — among the more attractive combinations of growth and valuation in the regional bank peer group.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The price-to-earnings growth ratio stays below 0.5 and forward earnings estimates rise at least 5% over the next two quarters.
CounterThe analyst consensus price target has already been reached, meaning the market has largely priced in these favorable fundamentals; further re-rating requires earnings acceleration beyond current estimates.
Net margins of 29% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Texas Capital operates with above-average efficiency and financial discipline relative to regional bank peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four quarters.
CounterThe bank has no identified competitive moat score, meaning margin strength may be cyclical rather than structural and could compress if the interest rate environment shifts adversely.
The current stock price of $100.73 has effectively reached the analyst consensus target, leaving only 0.2% measured upside — an asymmetry ratio of negative 1.0 — which limits the reward available to new buyers at current levels.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Either earnings estimates rise enough to lift the consensus target above $110, or the stock pulls back below $95 to restore a more favorable entry point.
CounterStocks that exceed analyst targets on strong fundamental momentum often see target upgrades quickly; the 4-quarter beat streak increases the probability that analysts revise targets upward after the next report.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $10,361,566 (0.230% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 6.2 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-8.8%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Value at 7.8, and Momentum at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Insider at 3.8, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Texas Capital has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters, averaging nearly 20% above consensus estimates, demonstrating that management is consistently delivering results ahead of market expectations.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current beat streak.
- P2The bank trades at a price-to-earnings growth ratio of just 0.17, combining strong earnings growth momentum with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.1 times — among the more attractive combinations of growth and valuation in the regional bank peer group.
Trip ifPrice-to-earnings growth ratio rises above 1.0, indicating growth is no longer cheap relative to the forward earnings multiple.
- P3Net margins of 29% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Texas Capital operates with above-average efficiency and financial discipline relative to regional bank peers.
Trip ifNet margin drops below 20% in any reported quarter, more than 9 percentage points below the current 29% level.
- P4The current stock price of $100.73 has effectively reached the analyst consensus target, leaving only 0.2% measured upside — an asymmetry ratio of negative 1.0 — which limits the reward available to new buyers at current levels.
Trip ifStock price rises above $110 without a corresponding analyst target upgrade, pushing the asymmetry ratio below negative 2.0.