Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
SXI · Why this verdict
Why Standex International Corporati (SXI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Standex International has delivered a strong earnings track record with three beats in four quarters and carries a high-quality financial profile, but RSI at 81 signals overbought conditions and the stock price substantially exceeds the analyst target, eliminating near-term entry opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Standex beat consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with average EPS surprise of 4.4%, showing consistent execution against financial targets in specialty industrial machinery. Earnings | The beat rate continues at 3 or more beats in the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance remains achievable and conservative. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced an essentially flat result (negative 0.09% surprise), hinting that the beat cadence may be narrowing as analyst expectations have caught up. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong balance sheet health including a current ratio above the peers and improving profitability metrics across return on equity and return on assets. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 12 months, indicating that financial health is not deteriorating. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-to-mid-cap industrial companies with elevated quality scores can still see rapid deterioration if a single large customer or division underperforms, and the company's $3.7 billion market cap limits buffer. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 3.56 and a price above the maximum pain level of $185 suggest that options market participants are positioning defensively at current levels near $309. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock consolidates back toward maximum pain, indicating the elevated defensive positioning has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity names can reflect hedging activity rather than directional bearishness, and the signal is noisier for smaller industrial companies. | ||
The company shows solid earnings growth with a growth score of 7.2, supported by revenue growth and strong momentum, positioning it above median peers in the specialty industrial machinery sector. Scores | Revenue growth remains positive and the growth score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the growth profile is structural rather than one-quarter phenomenon. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward price-to-earnings of 31.1x is expensive for an industrial machinery company, and any growth deceleration could quickly make the valuation untenable. | ||
Standex beat consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with average EPS surprise of 4.4%, showing consistent execution against financial targets in specialty industrial machinery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate continues at 3 or more beats in the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance remains achievable and conservative.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced an essentially flat result (negative 0.09% surprise), hinting that the beat cadence may be narrowing as analyst expectations have caught up.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong balance sheet health including a current ratio above the peers and improving profitability metrics across return on equity and return on assets.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 12 months, indicating that financial health is not deteriorating.
CounterSmall-to-mid-cap industrial companies with elevated quality scores can still see rapid deterioration if a single large customer or division underperforms, and the company's $3.7 billion market cap limits buffer.
A put-to-call ratio of 3.56 and a price above the maximum pain level of $185 suggest that options market participants are positioning defensively at current levels near $309.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock consolidates back toward maximum pain, indicating the elevated defensive positioning has resolved.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity names can reflect hedging activity rather than directional bearishness, and the signal is noisier for smaller industrial companies.
The company shows solid earnings growth with a growth score of 7.2, supported by revenue growth and strong momentum, positioning it above median peers in the specialty industrial machinery sector.
→StableScores
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains positive and the growth score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the growth profile is structural rather than one-quarter phenomenon.
CounterThe forward price-to-earnings of 31.1x is expensive for an industrial machinery company, and any growth deceleration could quickly make the valuation untenable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $239,960 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $175
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 43.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.66
Upside
-24.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.2; weakest: Peer rank at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.2, Momentum at 6.8, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Technical at 3.8, and Sentiment at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Standex beat consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with average EPS surprise of 4.4%, showing consistent execution against financial targets in specialty industrial machinery.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports, indicating the beat cadence has broken.
- P2A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong balance sheet health including a current ratio above the peers and improving profitability metrics across return on equity and return on assets.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any single reported period, indicating financial health deterioration of more than 2 points from the current level of 8.
- P3A put-to-call ratio of 3.56 and a price above the maximum pain level of $185 suggest that options market participants are positioning defensively at current levels near $309.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 3.0 for more than 60 consecutive days, indicating sustained defensive positioning rather than a transient hedge.
- P4The company shows solid earnings growth with a growth score of 7.2, supported by revenue growth and strong momentum, positioning it above median peers in the specialty industrial machinery sector.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, indicating the growth profile has turned negative.