Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
STLD · Why this verdict
Why Steel Dynamics (STLD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -2% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.4x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=9)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $7,569,559 (0.021% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 85.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.35
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(9)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-6.6%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.52>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Insider at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Technical at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Momentum at 4.0, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.