Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
- ▸Attractively valued
SSNC · Why this verdict
Why SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SS&C Technologies trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x against analyst targets implying 22% upside and converts 158% of net income into free cash flow, but a confirmed long-term downtrend and inconsistent earnings record over the past 4 quarters create meaningful near-term timing risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 67% of revenue comes from United States operations, exposing the company to any domestic slowdown in financial services technology spending that could compress growth rates. Bear case | International revenue grows faster than domestic revenue, reducing the United States share below 62% within 24 months as the company diversifies its geographic base. | →Stable |
| CounterUS financial services is a large and relatively resilient end market; geographic concentration in the US may be a competitive advantage rather than a risk if domestic fintech spending remains robust. | ||
SS&C converts approximately 158% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that accounting earnings substantially understate the actual cash generation power of the business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% over the next 12 months, providing the financial flexibility for debt reduction or capital returns. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect aggressive depreciation or working capital timing benefits that reverse; elevated debt (debt-to-equity 1.1) limits how much of that cash flow is available to equity holders. | ||
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $82.46 implies more than 22% upside from the current price of $67.42, supported by a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x that reflects an earnings-recovery discount. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches $80 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the valuation gap to analyst targets narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets were set above current prices during a period when the stock was in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to reverse momentum, price may remain below targets for an extended period. | ||
SS&C is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 3.3% per month, confirming a sustained downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, confirming trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath cross patterns in software stocks can persist for 9 to 18 months when accompanied by earnings uncertainty, and below-average institutional volume accumulation confirms ongoing distribution. | ||
Approximately 67% of revenue comes from United States operations, exposing the company to any domestic slowdown in financial services technology spending that could compress growth rates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows faster than domestic revenue, reducing the United States share below 62% within 24 months as the company diversifies its geographic base.
CounterUS financial services is a large and relatively resilient end market; geographic concentration in the US may be a competitive advantage rather than a risk if domestic fintech spending remains robust.
SS&C converts approximately 158% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that accounting earnings substantially understate the actual cash generation power of the business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% over the next 12 months, providing the financial flexibility for debt reduction or capital returns.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect aggressive depreciation or working capital timing benefits that reverse; elevated debt (debt-to-equity 1.1) limits how much of that cash flow is available to equity holders.
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $82.46 implies more than 22% upside from the current price of $67.42, supported by a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x that reflects an earnings-recovery discount.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches $80 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the valuation gap to analyst targets narrows.
CounterAnalyst targets were set above current prices during a period when the stock was in a confirmed downtrend; without a catalyst to reverse momentum, price may remain below targets for an extended period.
SS&C is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 3.3% per month, confirming a sustained downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, confirming trend reversal.
CounterDeath cross patterns in software stocks can persist for 9 to 18 months when accompanied by earnings uncertainty, and below-average institutional volume accumulation confirms ongoing distribution.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 9.7 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 158% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $583,592 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 163.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.44
Upside
+22.6%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Sentiment at 7.1, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Peer rank at 3.8, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1SS&C converts approximately 158% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that accounting earnings substantially understate the actual cash generation power of the business.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income over any 12-month period, declining more than 78 percentage points from the current 158% level.
- P2The analyst consensus price target of approximately $82.46 implies more than 22% upside from the current price of $67.42, supported by a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0x that reflects an earnings-recovery discount.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down below $72, less than 7% above current price, removing the valuation recovery thesis.
- P3SS&C is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at 3.3% per month, confirming a sustained downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse.
Trip ifStock price drops below $60, more than 11% below the current $67.42, without a corresponding recovery above the 200-day moving average within 60 days.
- P4Approximately 67% of revenue comes from United States operations, exposing the company to any domestic slowdown in financial services technology spending that could compress growth rates.
Trip ifRevenue growth from United States operations exceeds international growth by more than 10 percentage points for 2 consecutive reported quarters.