Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.19
SNA · Why this verdict
Why Snap-On (SNA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Snap-on is a high-quality industrial tools business with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, wide economic moat, and 20% operating margins, but the stock has surpassed analyst price targets with negative asymmetry, making the business quality case attractive while the current price offers no margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Snap-on earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a quality score of 8.1/10, and wide economic moat designation, reflecting exceptional balance sheet strength, earnings quality, and durable competitive positioning in professional tools. Quality breakdown | The company maintains its Piotroski F-Score above 8 over the next 12 months, confirming the business quality is not deteriorating. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic concentration risk in the United States, flagged as a high-risk concentration factor, means any domestic slowdown in auto repair or industrial activity would disproportionately impact results. | ||
Snap-on has beaten or met earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.3% and a most recent quarter beat by 8.1%, demonstrating steady execution in a mature industrial business. Earnings | The company delivers at least 2 more earnings beats over the next 4 quarters, with positive average surprises above 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -1.24%, and the growth profile is modest with revenue growing at a low single-digit pace, suggesting limited earnings upside. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross pattern with bullish MACD and is trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 65, suggesting institutional buying support for the breakout thesis. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months as the breakout pattern holds. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite the golden cross, on-balance volume is falling, indicating that trading volume is not confirming the price strength — distribution may be occurring at these elevated levels. | ||
The stock has exceeded analyst price targets by 11.5%, meaning the upside is now negative at current prices relative to consensus fair value — making any new position dependent on analysts upgrading their estimates. Warnings | Analyst consensus price target rises above $430, restoring at least 10% upside from the current price of $386, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong business quality and a breakout momentum pattern can sustain prices above analyst targets for extended periods if earnings estimates continue to rise. | ||
Snap-on earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a quality score of 8.1/10, and wide economic moat designation, reflecting exceptional balance sheet strength, earnings quality, and durable competitive positioning in professional tools.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains its Piotroski F-Score above 8 over the next 12 months, confirming the business quality is not deteriorating.
CounterGeographic concentration risk in the United States, flagged as a high-risk concentration factor, means any domestic slowdown in auto repair or industrial activity would disproportionately impact results.
Snap-on has beaten or met earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.3% and a most recent quarter beat by 8.1%, demonstrating steady execution in a mature industrial business.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 2 more earnings beats over the next 4 quarters, with positive average surprises above 1%.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss at -1.24%, and the growth profile is modest with revenue growing at a low single-digit pace, suggesting limited earnings upside.
The stock has formed a golden cross pattern with bullish MACD and is trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 65, suggesting institutional buying support for the breakout thesis.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months as the breakout pattern holds.
CounterDespite the golden cross, on-balance volume is falling, indicating that trading volume is not confirming the price strength — distribution may be occurring at these elevated levels.
The stock has exceeded analyst price targets by 11.5%, meaning the upside is now negative at current prices relative to consensus fair value — making any new position dependent on analysts upgrading their estimates.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $430, restoring at least 10% upside from the current price of $386, within 12 months.
CounterStrong business quality and a breakout momentum pattern can sustain prices above analyst targets for extended periods if earnings estimates continue to rise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $13,191,969 (0.065% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 1.1 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.83
- ▸Above max pain $290
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 249.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.62
Upside
-13.8%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.62 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Momentum at 6.8, and Value at 5.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Technical at 3.6, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Snap-on earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a quality score of 8.1/10, and wide economic moat designation, reflecting exceptional balance sheet strength, earnings quality, and durable competitive positioning in professional tools.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported period or operating margin drops below 15%, indicating quality deterioration.
- P2Snap-on has beaten or met earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 2.3% and a most recent quarter beat by 8.1%, demonstrating steady execution in a mature industrial business.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the modest beat streak has reversed into a miss pattern.
- P3The stock has formed a golden cross pattern with bullish MACD and is trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 65, suggesting institutional buying support for the breakout thesis.
Trip ifPrice drops below $350, more than 9% below the current $386, confirming the golden cross breakout has failed.
- P4The stock has exceeded analyst price targets by 11.5%, meaning the upside is now negative at current prices relative to consensus fair value — making any new position dependent on analysts upgrading their estimates.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $440, restoring at least 12% upside from current levels above $386.