Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.09
- ▸Attractively valued
REGN · Why this verdict
Why Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x with 22% analyst upside, and maintains strong net margins of 30% — but faces declining earnings estimates, weak revenue growth, and near-term technical weakness from a death cross, creating a fundamentally sound but momentum-challenged setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Regeneron has net margins of 30% — strong for the pharmaceutical sector — a current ratio of 9.4 indicating excellent liquidity, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting solid financial health and an established drug portfolio generating consistent cash flows. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the commercial drug portfolio continues generating strong profitability. | →Stable |
| CounterA free cash flow quality score of only 5.6 — flagged as a warning at 74% conversion — suggests that despite strong net margins, capital allocation decisions are consuming meaningful cash before it reaches shareholders. | ||
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, including a 52.7% beat earlier in the year — indicating the company's drug portfolio is generating revenues and cash flows consistently above what analyst consensus models anticipated. Earnings | Regeneron continues to beat earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward — a bear case item specifically called out in the data — meaning future quarters must beat a declining bar, and the magnitude of beats may compress even if the streak continues. | ||
Regeneron trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and an EV/EBITDA that scores modestly, with a PEG of 1.07 — and ranks attractively on both absolute valuation and relative to peers on value metrics, with a value score of 7.3 out of 10 and analyst consensus implying 22% upside to $749.98. Valuation breakdown | Analyst consensus price target holds above $700 over the next 12 months as pipeline execution maintains current revenue run rates. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak growth with a revenue growth score of 7.3 and earnings growth score of only 0.6 mean the PEG may not be representative — if earnings are near-flat, a PEG of 1.07 is based on minimal growth, and the forward multiple is only attractive if earnings do not decline further. | ||
Despite strong absolute results, Regeneron faces downward earnings estimate revisions and a death cross technical pattern — both of which suggest near-term price headwinds even as the underlying business remains fundamentally sound, and together they explain why the stock is recovering from below its 200-day moving average. Bear case | Earnings estimate revisions turn neutral or positive within 12 months and the stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average, resolving both technical and fundamental headwinds simultaneously. | →Stable |
| CounterWith an asymmetry ratio of 4.25 and 22% upside to the analyst target, the death cross is forming against a backdrop of strong absolute valuation support — meaning even if earnings estimates compress further, the stock may find buyers at current multiples who view the technical weakness as an entry opportunity. | ||
Regeneron has net margins of 30% — strong for the pharmaceutical sector — a current ratio of 9.4 indicating excellent liquidity, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting solid financial health and an established drug portfolio generating consistent cash flows.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 25% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the commercial drug portfolio continues generating strong profitability.
CounterA free cash flow quality score of only 5.6 — flagged as a warning at 74% conversion — suggests that despite strong net margins, capital allocation decisions are consuming meaningful cash before it reaches shareholders.
Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, including a 52.7% beat earlier in the year — indicating the company's drug portfolio is generating revenues and cash flows consistently above what analyst consensus models anticipated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Regeneron continues to beat earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward — a bear case item specifically called out in the data — meaning future quarters must beat a declining bar, and the magnitude of beats may compress even if the streak continues.
Regeneron trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and an EV/EBITDA that scores modestly, with a PEG of 1.07 — and ranks attractively on both absolute valuation and relative to peers on value metrics, with a value score of 7.3 out of 10 and analyst consensus implying 22% upside to $749.98.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target holds above $700 over the next 12 months as pipeline execution maintains current revenue run rates.
CounterWeak growth with a revenue growth score of 7.3 and earnings growth score of only 0.6 mean the PEG may not be representative — if earnings are near-flat, a PEG of 1.07 is based on minimal growth, and the forward multiple is only attractive if earnings do not decline further.
Despite strong absolute results, Regeneron faces downward earnings estimate revisions and a death cross technical pattern — both of which suggest near-term price headwinds even as the underlying business remains fundamentally sound, and together they explain why the stock is recovering from below its 200-day moving average.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimate revisions turn neutral or positive within 12 months and the stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average, resolving both technical and fundamental headwinds simultaneously.
CounterWith an asymmetry ratio of 4.25 and 22% upside to the analyst target, the death cross is forming against a backdrop of strong absolute valuation support — meaning even if earnings estimates compress further, the stock may find buyers at current multiples who view the technical weakness as an entry opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.6 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 9.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.80 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $148,251 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $410
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 60.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.26
Upside
+19.3%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.4, Value at 7.2, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Growth at 3.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Regeneron has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 22%, including a 52.7% beat earlier in the year — indicating the company's drug portfolio is generating revenues and cash flows consistently above what analyst consensus models anticipated.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that even the declining earnings estimate bar is being missed.
- P2Regeneron trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.4x and an EV/EBITDA that scores modestly, with a PEG of 1.07 — and ranks attractively on both absolute valuation and relative to peers on value metrics, with a value score of 7.3 out of 10 and analyst consensus implying 22% upside to $749.98.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $650, indicating forward valuation confidence has eroded by more than 13% from the current $749.98 target.
- P3Regeneron has net margins of 30% — strong for the pharmaceutical sector — a current ratio of 9.4 indicating excellent liquidity, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, reflecting solid financial health and an established drug portfolio generating consistent cash flows.
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% in any single quarter, indicating meaningful pressure on the commercial drug portfolio profitability.
- P4Despite strong absolute results, Regeneron faces downward earnings estimate revisions and a death cross technical pattern — both of which suggest near-term price headwinds even as the underlying business remains fundamentally sound, and together they explain why the stock is recovering from below its 200-day moving average.
Trip ifEarnings per share estimates for the next fiscal year are revised downward by more than 15% from current consensus, confirming the declining estimate trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing.