Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.2 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.94
PWR · Why this verdict
Why Quanta Services (PWR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Quanta Services has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and 26% year-over-year earnings growth driven by infrastructure buildout, but with 70% of revenue concentrated in utility and power customers and the stock already priced above analyst targets, the risk-reward no longer favors new entry at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Utility and power customers represent 70% of total revenue, creating significant exposure to regulatory changes, rate cases, or capital spending deferrals by regulated utilities that could materially reduce the backlog and revenue outlook. Bear case | No single utility customer represents more than 20% of total revenue in any given quarter, providing within-segment diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterThe secular tailwind of grid hardening, renewable interconnection, and data center power demand is a structural driver that makes the 70% utility concentration a feature rather than a bug over a 5-10 year horizon. | ||
Quanta Services has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and delivered 26% year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrating strong operational execution in the infrastructure and power delivery market. Earnings | Earnings growth sustains above 15% year over year for the next 12 months as utility capex spending continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's beat was only 31.8% on a single quarter, and three prior quarters showed beats of 1-5%, suggesting beat momentum is narrowing as estimates catch up to reality. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 44x and PEG of 2.0, and the current price of $724 is already 5.4% above the resistance-based take profit target of $752, indicating that the current price requires continued execution well above current consensus to generate positive returns. Valuation breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth sustain above 20% to justify the current valuation multiple over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInfrastructure and construction companies at cyclical peaks often trade at elevated multiples that compress quickly if growth decelerates; a 44x forward P/E provides little margin of safety. | ||
Despite elevated valuation, rising OBV and the stock trading above its 200-day moving average indicate ongoing institutional accumulation and broad market confidence in the company's growth trajectory. Momentum breakdown | OBV continues to trend higher and the stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation in a stock already above its analyst target and at a 44x forward P/E may reflect momentum-chasing rather than fundamental conviction, making the signal unreliable. | ||
Utility and power customers represent 70% of total revenue, creating significant exposure to regulatory changes, rate cases, or capital spending deferrals by regulated utilities that could materially reduce the backlog and revenue outlook.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No single utility customer represents more than 20% of total revenue in any given quarter, providing within-segment diversification.
CounterThe secular tailwind of grid hardening, renewable interconnection, and data center power demand is a structural driver that makes the 70% utility concentration a feature rather than a bug over a 5-10 year horizon.
Quanta Services has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and delivered 26% year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrating strong operational execution in the infrastructure and power delivery market.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains above 15% year over year for the next 12 months as utility capex spending continues.
CounterThe most recent quarter's beat was only 31.8% on a single quarter, and three prior quarters showed beats of 1-5%, suggesting beat momentum is narrowing as estimates catch up to reality.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 44x and PEG of 2.0, and the current price of $724 is already 5.4% above the resistance-based take profit target of $752, indicating that the current price requires continued execution well above current consensus to generate positive returns.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth sustain above 20% to justify the current valuation multiple over the next 12 months.
CounterInfrastructure and construction companies at cyclical peaks often trade at elevated multiples that compress quickly if growth decelerates; a 44x forward P/E provides little margin of safety.
Despite elevated valuation, rising OBV and the stock trading above its 200-day moving average indicate ongoing institutional accumulation and broad market confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- OBV continues to trend higher and the stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 months.
CounterVolume accumulation in a stock already above its analyst target and at a 44x forward P/E may reflect momentum-chasing rather than fundamental conviction, making the signal unreliable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $123,244,450 (0.117% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $290
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 6.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.26
Upside
-2.4%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Catalyst at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Momentum at 2.9, and Value at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quanta Services has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and delivered 26% year-over-year earnings growth, demonstrating strong operational execution in the infrastructure and power delivery market.
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 10% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Utility and power customers represent 70% of total revenue, creating significant exposure to regulatory changes, rate cases, or capital spending deferrals by regulated utilities that could materially reduce the backlog and revenue outlook.
Trip ifUtility and power customer revenue share exceeds 80% in any annual disclosure.
- P3The stock trades at a forward P/E of 44x and PEG of 2.0, and the current price of $724 is already 5.4% above the resistance-based take profit target of $752, indicating that the current price requires continued execution well above current consensus to generate positive returns.
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 25x following earnings estimate cuts of more than 20%.
- P4Despite elevated valuation, rising OBV and the stock trading above its 200-day moving average indicate ongoing institutional accumulation and broad market confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and OBV declines for more than 45 days.