Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.66
PJT · Why this verdict
Why PJT Partners (PJT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PJT Partners has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, and four consecutive earnings beats — but is in a confirmed death cross downtrend with a put-to-call ratio of 5.03, the highest in the dataset, and momentum that has failed all three entry gates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery. | ||
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital. | ||
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal. | ||
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves.
CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery.
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise.
CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital.
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered.
CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal.
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
| EPS growth | 4.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,682,836 (0.027% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $125
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 65.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.52
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.9) with weak momentum (1.1)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Quality at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 1.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.9, Technical at 7.0, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.1, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 or ROE drops below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating deterioration in business quality.
- P2The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0 or open interest on puts exceeds 5 times call open interest, indicating extreme bearish positioning escalation.
- P3PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed.
Trip ifPrice drops below $145 or momentum score falls below 2.5, indicating the downtrend is intensifying rather than recovering.
- P4PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in the next quarterly report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.