Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
PGNY · Why this verdict
Why Progyny (PGNY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Progyny has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 15.5% above estimates with excellent free cash flow conversion of 296%, but the stock has reached analyst targets and the current price offers no meaningful upside cushion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 296% of net income indicate strong business quality, with the company ranking best-in-class for margins among its peers. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains above 6 and free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, quality metrics could erode if the fertility benefits market becomes more competitive or key employer contracts are lost. | ||
Progyny has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.5%, driven by strong free cash flow conversion at 296% of net income. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2, and high leverage can amplify earnings volatility if revenue growth disappoints. | ||
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with an upside of -1.0% to the resistance level, and the asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -0.28, meaning downside risk of 6.4% exceeds any near-term reward. Warnings | Price pulls back at least 5% to create a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10% over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks that reach analyst targets on earnings momentum can remain elevated longer than expected if the company delivers continued beats. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2 represents an elevated leverage penalty that limits position sizing and increases sensitivity to interest rate changes or revenue shortfalls. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as the company deploys free cash flow to reduce obligations. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage in healthcare services can be manageable when cash flows are predictable; the 296% FCF conversion suggests debt service is not currently stressed. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 296% of net income indicate strong business quality, with the company ranking best-in-class for margins among its peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains above 6 and free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next 4 quarters.
CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, quality metrics could erode if the fertility benefits market becomes more competitive or key employer contracts are lost.
Progyny has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.5%, driven by strong free cash flow conversion at 296% of net income.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2, and high leverage can amplify earnings volatility if revenue growth disappoints.
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with an upside of -1.0% to the resistance level, and the asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -0.28, meaning downside risk of 6.4% exceeds any near-term reward.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back at least 5% to create a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10% over the next 6 months.
CounterStocks that reach analyst targets on earnings momentum can remain elevated longer than expected if the company delivers continued beats.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2 represents an elevated leverage penalty that limits position sizing and increases sensitivity to interest rate changes or revenue shortfalls.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as the company deploys free cash flow to reduce obligations.
CounterHigh leverage in healthcare services can be manageable when cash flows are predictable; the 296% FCF conversion suggests debt service is not currently stressed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 6.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 296% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 1.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,000,891 (0.048% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-2.9%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.9, Catalyst at 7.0, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Progyny has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.5%, driven by strong free cash flow conversion at 296% of net income.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the beat streak is losing momentum.
- P2The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with an upside of -1.0% to the resistance level, and the asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -0.28, meaning downside risk of 6.4% exceeds any near-term reward.
Trip ifStock price rises above $30.00 without a corresponding increase in analyst price targets, pushing asymmetry ratio below -1.0.
- P3A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 296% of net income indicate strong business quality, with the company ranking best-in-class for margins among its peers.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 5 or free cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2 represents an elevated leverage penalty that limits position sizing and increases sensitivity to interest rate changes or revenue shortfalls.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio exceeds 8.0 or interest coverage falls below 3 times earnings, indicating leverage stress.