Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
OI · Why this verdict
Why O-I Glass (OI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
O-I Glass offers extreme value at a forward P/E of 4.7x with 26.9% upside to analyst targets and a strong earnings beat streak of 3 of 4 quarters, but the business carries below-minimum quality with no competitive moat, deeply negative quality scores, and a confirmed price downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
O-I Glass scores 2.1 on quality against a minimum investable threshold of 4.0, with zero scores across return on equity, gross margin, and net margin, indicating the business is currently generating losses and lacks the financial strength to self-fund a recovery. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as margins recover and the balance sheet stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 suggests the company is not in acute financial distress, and a packaging business with rising order volumes could recover margins quickly as production volumes normalize. | ||
O-I Glass trades at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.02, placing it among the most deeply discounted names in the packaging sector, with analysts projecting 46% upside to consensus targets. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $11 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward industry peers. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme valuation discounts in cyclical packaging companies often reflect genuine concerns about debt levels, margin pressure, and demand vulnerability, and the quality score of 2.1 confirms serious business deterioration. | ||
Despite the weak quality profile, O-I Glass beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the MACD is improving with RSI at 48, suggesting a technical recovery may be forming after a prolonged downtrend. Earnings | Earnings surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming operational stabilization. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a -58% earnings surprise miss, and prior beats came from a low base, so the beat streak may not indicate genuine operational improvement. | ||
Volume accumulation is rising (measured by the on-balance volume indicator), and the MACD is improving despite the stock being below its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential early-stage recovery momentum that could support price appreciation if quality improves. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses above its 200-day moving average within 6 months as technical momentum confirms the recovery narrative. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average slope is declining at -5.6% per 30 days, indicating the downtrend is well established, and a single recovery bounce could easily be reversed without fundamental earnings improvement. | ||
O-I Glass scores 2.1 on quality against a minimum investable threshold of 4.0, with zero scores across return on equity, gross margin, and net margin, indicating the business is currently generating losses and lacks the financial strength to self-fund a recovery.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as margins recover and the balance sheet stabilizes.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 suggests the company is not in acute financial distress, and a packaging business with rising order volumes could recover margins quickly as production volumes normalize.
O-I Glass trades at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.02, placing it among the most deeply discounted names in the packaging sector, with analysts projecting 46% upside to consensus targets.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $11 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward industry peers.
CounterExtreme valuation discounts in cyclical packaging companies often reflect genuine concerns about debt levels, margin pressure, and demand vulnerability, and the quality score of 2.1 confirms serious business deterioration.
Despite the weak quality profile, O-I Glass beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the MACD is improving with RSI at 48, suggesting a technical recovery may be forming after a prolonged downtrend.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming operational stabilization.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a -58% earnings surprise miss, and prior beats came from a low base, so the beat streak may not indicate genuine operational improvement.
Volume accumulation is rising (measured by the on-balance volume indicator), and the MACD is improving despite the stock being below its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential early-stage recovery momentum that could support price appreciation if quality improves.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses above its 200-day moving average within 6 months as technical momentum confirms the recovery narrative.
CounterThe 200-day moving average slope is declining at -5.6% per 30 days, indicating the downtrend is well established, and a single recovery bounce could easily be reversed without fundamental earnings improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.2 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $279,368 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 1.5 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.28
Upside
+19.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Sentiment at 7.2, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Quality at 2.1, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1O-I Glass trades at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.02, placing it among the most deeply discounted names in the packaging sector, with analysts projecting 46% upside to consensus targets.
Trip ifStock price drops below $7, implying the valuation discount is widening further rather than normalizing.
- P2O-I Glass scores 2.1 on quality against a minimum investable threshold of 4.0, with zero scores across return on equity, gross margin, and net margin, indicating the business is currently generating losses and lacks the financial strength to self-fund a recovery.
Trip ifQuality score remains below 3.0 for 2 more consecutive assessment periods, indicating no meaningful margin recovery.
- P3Despite the weak quality profile, O-I Glass beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the MACD is improving with RSI at 48, suggesting a technical recovery may be forming after a prolonged downtrend.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, confirming the recent large miss was not an outlier.
- P4Volume accumulation is rising (measured by the on-balance volume indicator), and the MACD is improving despite the stock being below its 200-day moving average, suggesting potential early-stage recovery momentum that could support price appreciation if quality improves.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines by more than 7% over any 30-day period, deepening the confirmed downtrend.