Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
OBK · Why this verdict
Why Origin Bancorp (OBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Origin Bancorp presents an attractive combination of strong earnings momentum with 3 beats in the last 4 quarters, a favorable valuation at 11.6x forward P/E with PEG of 0.46, and a golden-cross technical breakout, but the stock has already reached analyst targets leaving minimal near-term upside without a new catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three earnings beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.7%, including a 24.5% beat, indicates consistent operational execution above analyst expectations in the regional banking environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters and average positive surprise remains above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings beats can be driven by one-time items such as provision reversals or securities gains rather than durable loan growth; the quality of the beat matters as much as the magnitude. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.6x combined with a PEG of 0.46 places Origin Bancorp at a valuation discount relative to earnings growth, suggesting the stock compensates investors for near-term uncertainty with below-average multiple risk. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands above 13x as earnings growth is re-rated, with the stock price moving above $56 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with moderate growth profiles often trade at persistent discounts to larger banks due to lower liquidity and limited scale advantages; the low PEG may reflect a justified structural discount. | ||
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages and an RSI of 57 — combined with rising on-balance volume — signals that buyers have established technical momentum, historically a leading indicator of sustained price appreciation in regional banks. Momentum breakdown | Stock remains above its 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 45 over the next 6 months, confirming the breakout is sustained rather than a false signal. | →Stable |
| CounterGolden crosses in small-cap regional banks can fail quickly when broad credit concerns emerge, as sector rotation out of financials can reverse technical patterns regardless of company-specific fundamentals. | ||
With the stock 8.2% above analyst price targets and trading within 2.1% of its 52-week high, near-term upside is exhausted absent a new analyst upgrade or earnings catalyst, and new buyers face an unfavorable entry point. Warnings | A price pullback of at least 8% from current levels or a meaningful analyst target upgrade above $58 creates a re-entry opportunity with a positive risk/reward ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks near their 52-week highs in strong technical uptrends often continue higher rather than reverting; the 8.2% target overshoot may reflect the market correctly pricing in near-term earnings upside not yet captured by models. | ||
Three earnings beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.7%, including a 24.5% beat, indicates consistent operational execution above analyst expectations in the regional banking environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate stays at 3 or more out of the next 4 quarters and average positive surprise remains above 8%.
CounterRegional bank earnings beats can be driven by one-time items such as provision reversals or securities gains rather than durable loan growth; the quality of the beat matters as much as the magnitude.
A forward P/E of 11.6x combined with a PEG of 0.46 places Origin Bancorp at a valuation discount relative to earnings growth, suggesting the stock compensates investors for near-term uncertainty with below-average multiple risk.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands above 13x as earnings growth is re-rated, with the stock price moving above $56 over 12 months.
CounterRegional banks with moderate growth profiles often trade at persistent discounts to larger banks due to lower liquidity and limited scale advantages; the low PEG may reflect a justified structural discount.
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages and an RSI of 57 — combined with rising on-balance volume — signals that buyers have established technical momentum, historically a leading indicator of sustained price appreciation in regional banks.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock remains above its 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 45 over the next 6 months, confirming the breakout is sustained rather than a false signal.
CounterGolden crosses in small-cap regional banks can fail quickly when broad credit concerns emerge, as sector rotation out of financials can reverse technical patterns regardless of company-specific fundamentals.
With the stock 8.2% above analyst price targets and trading within 2.1% of its 52-week high, near-term upside is exhausted absent a new analyst upgrade or earnings catalyst, and new buyers face an unfavorable entry point.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A price pullback of at least 8% from current levels or a meaningful analyst target upgrade above $58 creates a re-entry opportunity with a positive risk/reward ratio.
CounterStocks near their 52-week highs in strong technical uptrends often continue higher rather than reverting; the 8.2% target overshoot may reflect the market correctly pricing in near-term earnings upside not yet captured by models.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 8.6 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 198.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Peer rank at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Momentum at 7.4, and Value at 7.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.0, Technical at 3.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Three earnings beats in the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 12.7%, including a 24.5% beat, indicates consistent operational execution above analyst expectations in the regional banking environment.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2A forward P/E of 11.6x combined with a PEG of 0.46 places Origin Bancorp at a valuation discount relative to earnings growth, suggesting the stock compensates investors for near-term uncertainty with below-average multiple risk.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 9x or earnings growth guidance is reduced below 5% annually.
- P3A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages and an RSI of 57 — combined with rising on-balance volume — signals that buyers have established technical momentum, historically a leading indicator of sustained price appreciation in regional banks.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and RSI falls below 35 for more than 3 consecutive weeks.
- P4With the stock 8.2% above analyst price targets and trading within 2.1% of its 52-week high, near-term upside is exhausted absent a new analyst upgrade or earnings catalyst, and new buyers face an unfavorable entry point.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is reduced by more than 10% or price rises above $60 without an earnings upgrade.