Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
NWBI · Why this verdict
Why Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Northwest Bancshares beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, and shows strong momentum with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, but loan portfolio concentration in real estate lending and an unsafe dividend yield flag material risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan portfolio is concentrated in residential and commercial real estate lending, which is the single largest concentration risk flagged at the high level, exposing the bank to regional real estate market cycles and interest rate sensitivity on its loan book. Bear case | Non-performing loan ratio remains below 1.5% of total loans for the next 4 quarters, confirming credit quality holds despite the concentration. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks by nature concentrate in local markets, and a well-underwritten real estate book can be less risky than a diversified but poorly-managed commercial loan portfolio, making concentration alone an insufficient risk measure. | ||
Northwest Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, indicating the market is significantly underpricing the company's earnings growth rate relative to its current valuation, particularly for a regional bank with strong operating margins of 21%. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E re-rates toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth becomes more visible, lifting the stock price above $16. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks trade at low P/E ratios for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, rate risk, and regulatory capital requirements, so a low P/E may reflect appropriate pricing of these risks rather than a valuation gap. | ||
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, and the growth score of 8.2/10 signals earnings momentum that is accelerating above what the current valuation implies. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat trajectory at a meaningful rate. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss of 5.94% in October 2025 suggests the beat streak is not perfectly reliable, and a regional bank with loan portfolio concentration is exposed to credit quality deterioration that can abruptly end earnings growth. | ||
A golden cross, RSI of 59, bullish MACD, price above all moving averages, and rising on-balance volume all confirm a technical breakout setup that historically precedes sustained price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above $16 within 6 months as institutional momentum players respond to the confirmed breakout pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and analyst targets suggest limited further upside of negative 10.3%, meaning the technical breakout may be late-stage rather than early-stage. | ||
The loan portfolio is concentrated in residential and commercial real estate lending, which is the single largest concentration risk flagged at the high level, exposing the bank to regional real estate market cycles and interest rate sensitivity on its loan book.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-performing loan ratio remains below 1.5% of total loans for the next 4 quarters, confirming credit quality holds despite the concentration.
CounterRegional banks by nature concentrate in local markets, and a well-underwritten real estate book can be less risky than a diversified but poorly-managed commercial loan portfolio, making concentration alone an insufficient risk measure.
Northwest Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, indicating the market is significantly underpricing the company's earnings growth rate relative to its current valuation, particularly for a regional bank with strong operating margins of 21%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E re-rates toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth becomes more visible, lifting the stock price above $16.
CounterRegional banks trade at low P/E ratios for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, rate risk, and regulatory capital requirements, so a low P/E may reflect appropriate pricing of these risks rather than a valuation gap.
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, and the growth score of 8.2/10 signals earnings momentum that is accelerating above what the current valuation implies.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat trajectory at a meaningful rate.
CounterOne miss of 5.94% in October 2025 suggests the beat streak is not perfectly reliable, and a regional bank with loan portfolio concentration is exposed to credit quality deterioration that can abruptly end earnings growth.
A golden cross, RSI of 59, bullish MACD, price above all moving averages, and rising on-balance volume all confirm a technical breakout setup that historically precedes sustained price appreciation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $16 within 6 months as institutional momentum players respond to the confirmed breakout pattern.
CounterThe stock is already within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and analyst targets suggest limited further upside of negative 10.3%, meaning the technical breakout may be late-stage rather than early-stage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $309,160 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.56
Upside
-13.5%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Value at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.2, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Northwest Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, indicating the market is significantly underpricing the company's earnings growth rate relative to its current valuation, particularly for a regional bank with strong operating margins of 21%.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without earnings estimates rising by at least 10%, or the stock price falls below $12.
- P2The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, and the growth score of 8.2/10 signals earnings momentum that is accelerating above what the current valuation implies.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3The loan portfolio is concentrated in residential and commercial real estate lending, which is the single largest concentration risk flagged at the high level, exposing the bank to regional real estate market cycles and interest rate sensitivity on its loan book.
Trip ifNon-performing loans rise above 2% of the total loan portfolio in any reported quarter.
- P4A golden cross, RSI of 59, bullish MACD, price above all moving averages, and rising on-balance volume all confirm a technical breakout setup that historically precedes sustained price appreciation.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and stays below for more than 15 trading days.