Value
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 3.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 3.43
- ▸Attractively valued
NMR · Why this verdict
Why Nomura Holdings (NMR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nomura Holdings trades at an attractive forward P/E of 15.7x with strong 28% revenue growth and superior peer-relative valuation, but three consecutive earnings misses and a price already above analyst consensus make the risk-reward unfavorable at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nomura has missed analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of approximately 6.8%, reflecting ongoing difficulty in converting its revenue growth into reliable earnings delivery. Earnings | Nomura returns to positive earnings surprises in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, demonstrating improved cost discipline or revenue quality. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets firms like Nomura operate in volatile trading environments where quarterly earnings predictability is inherently low and misses do not always indicate structural deterioration. | ||
Revenue has grown approximately 28% year-over-year, which is strong for a large financial services firm and indicates Nomura is gaining market share or benefiting from favorable capital markets conditions. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets revenue is highly cyclical, and 28% growth may reflect a peak in trading or advisory activity that could reverse sharply in less favorable markets. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 9.2 is very high even for a financial services firm, representing a meaningful amplifier of risk and a constraint on the company's ability to grow without additional capital raises. Bear case | Nomura reduces its debt-to-equity ratio below 7x within 12 months without material dilution to shareholders. | →Stable |
| CounterInvestment banks structurally operate with high leverage ratios, and Nomura's leverage is characteristic of its industry segment rather than a sign of financial distress. | ||
At a current price of $8.81, Nomura is trading approximately 9.8% above analyst consensus fair value estimates, meaning buyers at current prices are paying more than analysts believe the company is worth. Warnings | Analyst consensus price target rises above $9.50 within 6 months as earnings stabilize, closing the gap to current price. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI has reached overbought levels of 70 with strong volume accumulation, suggesting momentum traders may push the stock higher even without fundamental support. | ||
Nomura has missed analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of approximately 6.8%, reflecting ongoing difficulty in converting its revenue growth into reliable earnings delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Nomura returns to positive earnings surprises in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, demonstrating improved cost discipline or revenue quality.
CounterCapital markets firms like Nomura operate in volatile trading environments where quarterly earnings predictability is inherently low and misses do not always indicate structural deterioration.
Revenue has grown approximately 28% year-over-year, which is strong for a large financial services firm and indicates Nomura is gaining market share or benefiting from favorable capital markets conditions.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterCapital markets revenue is highly cyclical, and 28% growth may reflect a peak in trading or advisory activity that could reverse sharply in less favorable markets.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 9.2 is very high even for a financial services firm, representing a meaningful amplifier of risk and a constraint on the company's ability to grow without additional capital raises.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Nomura reduces its debt-to-equity ratio below 7x within 12 months without material dilution to shareholders.
CounterInvestment banks structurally operate with high leverage ratios, and Nomura's leverage is characteristic of its industry segment rather than a sign of financial distress.
At a current price of $8.81, Nomura is trading approximately 9.8% above analyst consensus fair value estimates, meaning buyers at current prices are paying more than analysts believe the company is worth.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $9.50 within 6 months as earnings stabilize, closing the gap to current price.
CounterRSI has reached overbought levels of 70 with strong volume accumulation, suggesting momentum traders may push the stock higher even without fundamental support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 8.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 375.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.1, Momentum at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Nomura has missed analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of approximately 6.8%, reflecting ongoing difficulty in converting its revenue growth into reliable earnings delivery.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P2Revenue has grown approximately 28% year-over-year, which is strong for a large financial services firm and indicates Nomura is gaining market share or benefiting from favorable capital markets conditions.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A debt-to-equity ratio of 9.2 is very high even for a financial services firm, representing a meaningful amplifier of risk and a constraint on the company's ability to grow without additional capital raises.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 11x within 12 months.
- P4At a current price of $8.81, Nomura is trading approximately 9.8% above analyst consensus fair value estimates, meaning buyers at current prices are paying more than analysts believe the company is worth.
Trip ifPrice rises above $10 while analyst consensus target remains below $9, widening the premium to more than 11%.