Value
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸Attractively valued
NIQ · Why this verdict
Why NIQ Global Intelligence (NIQ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NIQ Global Intelligence is a consumer intelligence data provider with 49% upside to analyst consensus targets and a forward P/E of only 7.1x, but quality metrics are extremely weak with a Piotroski F-Score of 0 and two consecutive earnings misses raising concerns about near-term execution reliability.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts carry a consensus price target of $12.72 versus the current price of $8.53, implying 49% upside — one of the largest analyst-to-price discounts in the screening universe — and the forward P/E of 7.1x appears significantly discounted for a data intelligence business. Valuation breakdown | The gap between analyst target and current price narrows to below 25% within 12 months as business execution improves and institutional confidence in forward estimates rises. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge analyst-to-price discounts often persist or widen when earnings delivery is unreliable; with 2 of 3 recent quarters resulting in misses, the target gap may reflect market skepticism rather than mispricing. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9 is the lowest possible score, signaling broad and simultaneous deterioration across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics — a multi-dimensional quality alarm that goes well beyond a single weak indicator. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 3 within 12 months, reflecting stabilization in at least 3 of the 9 component metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 0 at a newly public or recently restructured company may reflect temporarily depressed baseline financials rather than ongoing deterioration, and the score can improve rapidly if cash generation normalizes. | ||
NIQ has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the 3 reported quarters with an average negative surprise of -12%, with one quarter missing by -56%, indicating persistent difficulty in delivering results in line with analyst expectations. Earnings | NIQ meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, ending the pattern of persistent misses. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 51% positive surprise, which may indicate that expectations have been reset to a sufficiently low level and the miss cycle has bottomed. | ||
The stock shows improving momentum in a recovery setup with MACD turning bullish, rising on-balance volume, and an asymmetry ratio of 5.0 — suggesting the technical picture is stabilizing even as the business quality remains a concern. Chart pattern detection | Momentum score rises above 6.0 within 6 months and the stock price rises above $10 as the recovery pattern continues. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovery patterns in stocks near 52-week lows with zero Piotroski scores can be short-lived if underlying business deterioration continues to produce negative earnings revisions. | ||
Analysts carry a consensus price target of $12.72 versus the current price of $8.53, implying 49% upside — one of the largest analyst-to-price discounts in the screening universe — and the forward P/E of 7.1x appears significantly discounted for a data intelligence business.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The gap between analyst target and current price narrows to below 25% within 12 months as business execution improves and institutional confidence in forward estimates rises.
CounterLarge analyst-to-price discounts often persist or widen when earnings delivery is unreliable; with 2 of 3 recent quarters resulting in misses, the target gap may reflect market skepticism rather than mispricing.
A Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9 is the lowest possible score, signaling broad and simultaneous deterioration across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics — a multi-dimensional quality alarm that goes well beyond a single weak indicator.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to at least 3 within 12 months, reflecting stabilization in at least 3 of the 9 component metrics.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 0 at a newly public or recently restructured company may reflect temporarily depressed baseline financials rather than ongoing deterioration, and the score can improve rapidly if cash generation normalizes.
NIQ has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the 3 reported quarters with an average negative surprise of -12%, with one quarter missing by -56%, indicating persistent difficulty in delivering results in line with analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- NIQ meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, ending the pattern of persistent misses.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 51% positive surprise, which may indicate that expectations have been reset to a sufficiently low level and the miss cycle has bottomed.
The stock shows improving momentum in a recovery setup with MACD turning bullish, rising on-balance volume, and an asymmetry ratio of 5.0 — suggesting the technical picture is stabilizing even as the business quality remains a concern.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 6.0 within 6 months and the stock price rises above $10 as the recovery pattern continues.
CounterRecovery patterns in stocks near 52-week lows with zero Piotroski scores can be short-lived if underlying business deterioration continues to produce negative earnings revisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 29%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 77%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,000,009 (0.041% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
5.79
Upside
+54.3%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Sentiment at 7.6, and Insider at 5.8; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.3, Quality at 2.5, and Catalyst at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analysts carry a consensus price target of $12.72 versus the current price of $8.53, implying 49% upside — one of the largest analyst-to-price discounts in the screening universe — and the forward P/E of 7.1x appears significantly discounted for a data intelligence business.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $10 or forward P/E rises above 12x without earnings improvement above 20%.
- P2A Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9 is the lowest possible score, signaling broad and simultaneous deterioration across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics — a multi-dimensional quality alarm that goes well beyond a single weak indicator.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score remains at 0 or below 2 for 3 consecutive quarterly reports.
- P3NIQ has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the 3 reported quarters with an average negative surprise of -12%, with one quarter missing by -56%, indicating persistent difficulty in delivering results in line with analyst expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -30% in any single quarter or misses consensus in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4The stock shows improving momentum in a recovery setup with MACD turning bullish, rising on-balance volume, and an asymmetry ratio of 5.0 — suggesting the technical picture is stabilizing even as the business quality remains a concern.
Trip ifPrice drops below $7.93 stop-loss level or on-balance volume declines for more than 8 consecutive weeks.