Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
NBTB · Why this verdict
Why NBT Bancorp (NBTB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NBT Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x with a PEG of 0.38, growing revenue at 22% year-over-year with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a golden-cross breakout, yet the stock has already exceeded its analyst price target and carries a high concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans at 56% of the loan book.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial and commercial real estate loans represent 56% of the loan portfolio, creating concentrated credit exposure to sectors that have exhibited elevated stress levels in recent economic cycles, particularly in office and retail property. Bear case | CRE loan concentration falls below 50% of the portfolio within 12 months as the bank diversifies origination, or credit loss rates on the CRE book remain below 0.5% annually. | →Stable |
| CounterCommercial and CRE lending is often the core competency of community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten CRE portfolio can outperform diversified books in stable rate environments. | ||
NBT Bancorp is growing revenue at 22% year-over-year and trading at a PEG of 0.38, suggesting the market has not yet fully valued the pace of earnings expansion relative to the multiples assigned to regional bank peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the growth premium. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank revenue growth is highly sensitive to net interest margins, which compress when rate cycles reverse; the 22% growth rate may not persist through a different rate environment. | ||
A golden cross with RSI at 57, bullish MACD, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) signals broad-based technical strength, with the stock within 2.9% of its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score holds above 7.0 and the stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterProximity to a 52-week high combined with an already-exceeded price target means the technical setup is more stretched than early-stage, and a reversal would damage momentum scores quickly. | ||
The bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 10.3%, demonstrating consistent operational execution above management's guidance level. Earnings | Earnings per share beats analyst consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a near-miss of -0.73%, and the earlier miss of -26.6% demonstrates that individual quarters can be materially below expectations, unsettling investor confidence. | ||
Commercial and commercial real estate loans represent 56% of the loan portfolio, creating concentrated credit exposure to sectors that have exhibited elevated stress levels in recent economic cycles, particularly in office and retail property.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- CRE loan concentration falls below 50% of the portfolio within 12 months as the bank diversifies origination, or credit loss rates on the CRE book remain below 0.5% annually.
CounterCommercial and CRE lending is often the core competency of community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten CRE portfolio can outperform diversified books in stable rate environments.
NBT Bancorp is growing revenue at 22% year-over-year and trading at a PEG of 0.38, suggesting the market has not yet fully valued the pace of earnings expansion relative to the multiples assigned to regional bank peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the growth premium.
CounterRegional bank revenue growth is highly sensitive to net interest margins, which compress when rate cycles reverse; the 22% growth rate may not persist through a different rate environment.
A golden cross with RSI at 57, bullish MACD, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) signals broad-based technical strength, with the stock within 2.9% of its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score holds above 7.0 and the stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average over the next 6 months.
CounterProximity to a 52-week high combined with an already-exceeded price target means the technical setup is more stretched than early-stage, and a reversal would damage momentum scores quickly.
The bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 10.3%, demonstrating consistent operational execution above management's guidance level.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats analyst consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a near-miss of -0.73%, and the earlier miss of -26.6% demonstrates that individual quarters can be materially below expectations, unsettling investor confidence.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,387,274 (0.055% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.51
Upside
-13.2%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Insider at 3.9, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1NBT Bancorp is growing revenue at 22% year-over-year and trading at a PEG of 0.38, suggesting the market has not yet fully valued the pace of earnings expansion relative to the multiples assigned to regional bank peers.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Commercial and commercial real estate loans represent 56% of the loan portfolio, creating concentrated credit exposure to sectors that have exhibited elevated stress levels in recent economic cycles, particularly in office and retail property.
Trip ifCRE loan delinquency or charge-off rate exceeds 1.0% of the CRE portfolio on an annualized basis.
- P3A golden cross with RSI at 57, bullish MACD, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) signals broad-based technical strength, with the stock within 2.9% of its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages.
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.5 or the stock falls more than 10% below its 52-week high.
- P4The bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 10.3%, demonstrating consistent operational execution above management's guidance level.
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 10% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.