Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.4 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.76
MTZ · Why this verdict
Why MasTec (MTZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MasTec delivers extraordinary 34% revenue growth and a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 15%, but quality metrics remain below acceptable thresholds and momentum is insufficient to support a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MasTec reported 34% year-over-year revenue growth, the highest in the engineering and construction peer group, driven by infrastructure buildout demand that has translated into 4 consecutive earnings beats. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% YoY for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as infrastructure projects continue to ramp. | →Stable |
| CounterEngineering and construction revenue can be lumpy due to project timing; a single large project completion without backlog replenishment could cause a sharp deceleration. | ||
MasTec has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 15.3% and a standout 40.6% beat in the most recent quarter, demonstrating consistent execution above expectations. Earnings | The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining positive earnings momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterThe large 40.6% beat in the most recent quarter may reflect a one-time project acceleration that raises the comparison base, making future beats harder to achieve. | ||
Free cash flow conversion is only 3% of net income — a severe quality red flag — and the company shows no durable competitive moat, meaning reported earnings may not translate into real shareholder value. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConstruction companies often show low near-term free cash flow during expansion phases because working capital and capex are front-loaded; the ratio may recover naturally as projects complete. | ||
Analysts see 27% upside to their consensus target of approximately $425, giving MasTec one of the broader analyst conviction spreads in the industrials sector, even with quality concerns acknowledged. Sentiment | The stock price rises above $400 (more than 7% above current $371.85) within 12 months as infrastructure spending sustains revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical construction names often lag project cycle turns; if infrastructure spending slows, targets could be revised down before the stock re-rates. | ||
MasTec reported 34% year-over-year revenue growth, the highest in the engineering and construction peer group, driven by infrastructure buildout demand that has translated into 4 consecutive earnings beats.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% YoY for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as infrastructure projects continue to ramp.
CounterEngineering and construction revenue can be lumpy due to project timing; a single large project completion without backlog replenishment could cause a sharp deceleration.
MasTec has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 15.3% and a standout 40.6% beat in the most recent quarter, demonstrating consistent execution above expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining positive earnings momentum.
CounterThe large 40.6% beat in the most recent quarter may reflect a one-time project acceleration that raises the comparison base, making future beats harder to achieve.
Free cash flow conversion is only 3% of net income — a severe quality red flag — and the company shows no durable competitive moat, meaning reported earnings may not translate into real shareholder value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterConstruction companies often show low near-term free cash flow during expansion phases because working capital and capex are front-loaded; the ratio may recover naturally as projects complete.
Analysts see 27% upside to their consensus target of approximately $425, giving MasTec one of the broader analyst conviction spreads in the industrials sector, even with quality concerns acknowledged.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $400 (more than 7% above current $371.85) within 12 months as infrastructure spending sustains revenue.
CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical construction names often lag project cycle turns; if infrastructure spending slows, targets could be revised down before the stock re-rates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 3% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,663,605 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $100
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.55
Upside
+8.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.79>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.2, Quality at 3.2, and Value at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1MasTec reported 34% year-over-year revenue growth, the highest in the engineering and construction peer group, driven by infrastructure buildout demand that has translated into 4 consecutive earnings beats.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2MasTec has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 15.3% and a standout 40.6% beat in the most recent quarter, demonstrating consistent execution above expectations.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in any 1 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Free cash flow conversion is only 3% of net income — a severe quality red flag — and the company shows no durable competitive moat, meaning reported earnings may not translate into real shareholder value.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income remains below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analysts see 27% upside to their consensus target of approximately $425, giving MasTec one of the broader analyst conviction spreads in the industrials sector, even with quality concerns acknowledged.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $380 (drops below current implied 27% upside spread).