Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
- ▸PEG: 0.94
MOG-B · Why this verdict
Why Moog (MOG-B) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Moog Inc. Class B shares exhibit strong near-term technical momentum in a confirmed breakout setup, but the stock is already above its price target with negative residual upside, making the risk/reward unfavorable for new capital despite solid underlying financial health.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has entered a textbook breakout configuration — a golden cross has formed, price is above all major moving averages, the RSI is constructive at 67, and on-balance volume is rising — indicating broad-based technical strength across multiple timeframes. Engine gate (passed) | Price holds above its 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues trending higher. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is within 0.2% of its 52-week high; breakout setups at multi-year highs can stall without fresh volume if buyers are not willing to pay above the prior resistance level. | ||
Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers, a level flagged as a high-severity concentration risk — exposure to program cancellations, procurement cycles, or budget sequestration could materially impair revenue. Bear case | Revenue remains stable or grows; concentration in aerospace and defense OEM customers falls below 55% to signal meaningful diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-term, backlog-driven aerospace and defense contracts provide multi-year revenue visibility, which partially offsets the headline concentration figure. | ||
The stock has moved above its near-term price target, leaving negative implied headroom of -1.8% — at current prices the risk/reward ratio is -0.28-to-1 and unfavorable, meaning late entrants are purchasing above the established fair value level. Price targets | A pullback to at least 5% below current levels, or a meaningful analyst target upgrade, would be required to restore a positive entry setup. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading above a static price target can continue higher if the underlying growth profile or earnings power improves enough to justify a target revision; the absence of reported earnings data for this share class limits real-time visibility into that dynamic. | ||
The company scores 8 out of 9 on the standard financial health battery — a signal that across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, the business is in strong fundamental condition. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above in each of the next two annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow running at 78% of net income carries a quality warning — not all earnings are converting to cash, and if investment spending intensifies, that gap could widen and reduce the financial health score. | ||
The stock has entered a textbook breakout configuration — a golden cross has formed, price is above all major moving averages, the RSI is constructive at 67, and on-balance volume is rising — indicating broad-based technical strength across multiple timeframes.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day moving average for at least 6 months and on-balance volume continues trending higher.
CounterThe stock is within 0.2% of its 52-week high; breakout setups at multi-year highs can stall without fresh volume if buyers are not willing to pay above the prior resistance level.
Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers, a level flagged as a high-severity concentration risk — exposure to program cancellations, procurement cycles, or budget sequestration could materially impair revenue.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue remains stable or grows; concentration in aerospace and defense OEM customers falls below 55% to signal meaningful diversification.
CounterLong-term, backlog-driven aerospace and defense contracts provide multi-year revenue visibility, which partially offsets the headline concentration figure.
The stock has moved above its near-term price target, leaving negative implied headroom of -1.8% — at current prices the risk/reward ratio is -0.28-to-1 and unfavorable, meaning late entrants are purchasing above the established fair value level.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback to at least 5% below current levels, or a meaningful analyst target upgrade, would be required to restore a positive entry setup.
CounterA stock trading above a static price target can continue higher if the underlying growth profile or earnings power improves enough to justify a target revision; the absence of reported earnings data for this share class limits real-time visibility into that dynamic.
The company scores 8 out of 9 on the standard financial health battery — a signal that across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, the business is in strong fundamental condition.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above in each of the next two annual reporting periods.
CounterFree cash flow running at 78% of net income carries a quality warning — not all earnings are converting to cash, and if investment spending intensifies, that gap could widen and reduce the financial health score.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 29.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.8; weakest: Peer rank at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Momentum at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.6, Technical at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock has entered a textbook breakout configuration — a golden cross has formed, price is above all major moving averages, the RSI is constructive at 67, and on-balance volume is rising — indicating broad-based technical strength across multiple timeframes.
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive trading days and RSI falls below 45.
- P2The stock has moved above its near-term price target, leaving negative implied headroom of -1.8% — at current prices the risk/reward ratio is -0.28-to-1 and unfavorable, meaning late entrants are purchasing above the established fair value level.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is raised to exceed $420, restoring positive upside from the current price level of $399.52.
- P3Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers, a level flagged as a high-severity concentration risk — exposure to program cancellations, procurement cycles, or budget sequestration could materially impair revenue.
Trip ifAerospace and defense OEM customer concentration falls below 50% of total revenue in the next annual filing.
- P4The company scores 8 out of 9 on the standard financial health battery — a signal that across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, the business is in strong fundamental condition.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls to 5 or below in the next annual financial statement.