Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 35.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
MOG-A · Why this verdict
Why Moog (MOG-A) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Moog Inc. has posted a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with strong aerospace and defense exposure, but the stock has reached its near-term price target with minimal remaining upside and overbought technical conditions, creating an unfavorable risk/reward for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers — a level that creates material vulnerability to program delays, defense budget re-prioritization, or procurement cycle softness that management cannot control. Bear case | Revenue remains stable or grows year-over-year; if concentration from this segment falls below 55%, the diversification risk is meaningfully reduced. | →Stable |
| CounterAerospace and defense OEM contracts are typically multi-year and backlog-driven, providing revenue visibility that makes the concentration less immediately volatile than the percentage implies. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, demonstrating consistent under-promising and over-delivering in a market that rewards earnings predictability. Catalyst breakdown | Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with an average quarterly surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a forward earnings multiple of 34.6x, a perfect beat streak is arguably already embedded in the price; any quarter that merely meets — rather than beats — expectations could disproportionately re-price the stock. | ||
The stock sits just 0.7% below its near-term price target, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.1-to-1 — effectively no upside cushion remains at current prices, and the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable for new capital. Price targets | A price correction of at least 10% or a significant upward revision in analyst targets would be required to restore an attractive entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA 14% average quarterly earnings beat has historically been sufficient to drive analyst target upgrades; a strong upcoming print could reset the target framework and reopen upside. | ||
With the RSI at 80 and on-balance volume trending lower, technical momentum signals are stretched — an overbought reading combined with distribution in volume patterns historically precedes near-term mean reversion. Momentum breakdown | RSI normalizes below 60 and on-balance volume turns positive as fresh buyers enter at lower prices. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought readings can persist in strong structural uptrends; the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, which signals the longer-term trend is intact even as near-term conditions look stretched. | ||
Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers — a level that creates material vulnerability to program delays, defense budget re-prioritization, or procurement cycle softness that management cannot control.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue remains stable or grows year-over-year; if concentration from this segment falls below 55%, the diversification risk is meaningfully reduced.
CounterAerospace and defense OEM contracts are typically multi-year and backlog-driven, providing revenue visibility that makes the concentration less immediately volatile than the percentage implies.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, demonstrating consistent under-promising and over-delivering in a market that rewards earnings predictability.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with an average quarterly surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterAt a forward earnings multiple of 34.6x, a perfect beat streak is arguably already embedded in the price; any quarter that merely meets — rather than beats — expectations could disproportionately re-price the stock.
The stock sits just 0.7% below its near-term price target, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.1-to-1 — effectively no upside cushion remains at current prices, and the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable for new capital.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price correction of at least 10% or a significant upward revision in analyst targets would be required to restore an attractive entry.
CounterA 14% average quarterly earnings beat has historically been sufficient to drive analyst target upgrades; a strong upcoming print could reset the target framework and reopen upside.
With the RSI at 80 and on-balance volume trending lower, technical momentum signals are stretched — an overbought reading combined with distribution in volume patterns historically precedes near-term mean reversion.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI normalizes below 60 and on-balance volume turns positive as fresh buyers enter at lower prices.
CounterOverbought readings can persist in strong structural uptrends; the stock remains above its 200-day moving average, which signals the longer-term trend is intact even as near-term conditions look stretched.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 2.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,350,047 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $185
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 30.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-1.92
Upside
-28.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Catalyst at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Peer rank at 3.7, and Value at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, demonstrating consistent under-promising and over-delivering in a market that rewards earnings predictability.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter.
- P2Over 61% of revenue is concentrated in aerospace and defense OEM customers — a level that creates material vulnerability to program delays, defense budget re-prioritization, or procurement cycle softness that management cannot control.
Trip ifAerospace and defense OEM customer concentration falls below 50% of total revenue in the next annual filing.
- P3The stock sits just 0.7% below its near-term price target, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.1-to-1 — effectively no upside cushion remains at current prices, and the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable for new capital.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is raised by more than 20% from the current take-profit level of $400.88, restoring meaningful upside.
- P4With the RSI at 80 and on-balance volume trending lower, technical momentum signals are stretched — an overbought reading combined with distribution in volume patterns historically precedes near-term mean reversion.
Trip ifRSI falls to 55 or below and price holds above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days.