Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.49
MIAX · Why this verdict
Why Miami International Holdings, I (MIAX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Miami International Holdings has delivered three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 28% above consensus with strong growth metrics and a healthy balance sheet, yet the stock sits just below its near-term price target with less than 1% headroom and elevated leverage at a debt-to-equity of 2.1 — the reward-to-risk geometry does not support new capital at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of approximately 28% demonstrate that the business is consistently exceeding analyst expectations, reflecting strong operational execution or disciplined guidance management. Catalyst track record | A fourth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 50 days sustains the track record and signals continued outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage dampening the signal quality of the consensus estimate, the beat streak may reflect a less rigorous benchmark rather than genuine earnings strength; any miss on a thin consensus would be disproportionately negative. | ||
Earnings growth scores at the highest level in the evaluation framework and revenue growth is tracking at a healthy rate, placing the company in an above-average expansion phase relative to its peer group. Growth | Revenue growth score remains above 4.0 on a 0–10 scale for 4 consecutive periods, from its current level of 5.8. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth without a stated competitive moat is inherently less durable; rivals could erode the growth trajectory without a defensible market position to anchor it. | ||
The stock has pulled back to near-oversold conditions while remaining above its 200-day moving average, with on-balance volume trending upward — a pattern consistent with a temporary dip within a longer uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 within 8 weeks while the stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum sits just below the level considered clearly positive, and the near-term chart pattern is mixed with no definitive setup; the pullback could extend further before any recovery materializes. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1 has been assessed a formal leverage penalty against the investment score, and with only about 1% upside remaining to the near-term price target, the risk-to-reward does not justify new positions at this price. Bear case | If leverage declines, the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 4 to 6 quarters, removing the leverage headwind. | →Stable |
| CounterThe financial-strength score of 8 of 9 indicates the balance sheet is broadly healthy; moderate leverage in a capital-markets business can be a feature of the business model rather than a sign of financial stress. | ||
Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of approximately 28% demonstrate that the business is consistently exceeding analyst expectations, reflecting strong operational execution or disciplined guidance management.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- A fourth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 50 days sustains the track record and signals continued outperformance.
CounterWith light analyst coverage dampening the signal quality of the consensus estimate, the beat streak may reflect a less rigorous benchmark rather than genuine earnings strength; any miss on a thin consensus would be disproportionately negative.
Earnings growth scores at the highest level in the evaluation framework and revenue growth is tracking at a healthy rate, placing the company in an above-average expansion phase relative to its peer group.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth score remains above 4.0 on a 0–10 scale for 4 consecutive periods, from its current level of 5.8.
CounterGrowth without a stated competitive moat is inherently less durable; rivals could erode the growth trajectory without a defensible market position to anchor it.
The stock has pulled back to near-oversold conditions while remaining above its 200-day moving average, with on-balance volume trending upward — a pattern consistent with a temporary dip within a longer uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 within 8 weeks while the stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average.
CounterMomentum sits just below the level considered clearly positive, and the near-term chart pattern is mixed with no definitive setup; the pullback could extend further before any recovery materializes.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1 has been assessed a formal leverage penalty against the investment score, and with only about 1% upside remaining to the near-term price target, the risk-to-reward does not justify new positions at this price.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If leverage declines, the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 over the next 4 to 6 quarters, removing the leverage headwind.
CounterThe financial-strength score of 8 of 9 indicates the balance sheet is broadly healthy; moderate leverage in a capital-markets business can be a feature of the business model rather than a sign of financial stress.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 5.0 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $32,506,691 (0.920% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.68
Upside
+21.1%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.68 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Insider at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of approximately 28% demonstrate that the business is consistently exceeding analyst expectations, reflecting strong operational execution or disciplined guidance management.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P2Earnings growth scores at the highest level in the evaluation framework and revenue growth is tracking at a healthy rate, placing the company in an above-average expansion phase relative to its peer group.
Trip ifRevenue growth score falls below 3.0 on a 0–10 scale for 2 consecutive periods, from the current level of 5.8.
- P3The stock has pulled back to near-oversold conditions while remaining above its 200-day moving average, with on-balance volume trending upward — a pattern consistent with a temporary dip within a longer uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
Trip ifStock falls below the 200-day moving average and RSI remains below 30 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.1 has been assessed a formal leverage penalty against the investment score, and with only about 1% upside remaining to the near-term price target, the risk-to-reward does not justify new positions at this price.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.