Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.50
- ▸Attractively valued
MBLY · Why this verdict
Why Mobileye Global (MBLY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mobileye trades at an attractive valuation relative to its 27% revenue growth with a risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.6-to-1 and 25% upside to the analyst consensus target, but confirmed negative price momentum and a hard negative moving-average crossover signal that the market has not yet recognized the fundamental opportunity; patience is required for a technical catalyst before the setup resolves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company generates positive free cash flow at a 29% margin with a 7.4% free cash flow yield and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, demonstrating that this is not a pure cash-burning speculative story despite the negative operating income in several recent periods. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin sustains above 20% for the next two reported periods, confirming cash generation is structural rather than episodic. | →Stable |
| CounterWith operating margin still negative, free cash flow generation may be supported by working capital timing; if investment cycles intensify to support the 27% revenue growth, free cash flow could compress toward zero even as revenues expand. | ||
Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.61 and roughly 39% implied upside to analyst consensus targets — a combination that typically indicates the market is pricing in a permanent growth deceleration that the recent revenue trajectory does not support. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for the next two reported quarters, reinforcing the mismatch between growth and current valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward and recent quarters have included a miss and an in-line result; if revenue growth decelerates toward the market-implied expectation, the cheap-for-growth valuation argument loses its foundation. | ||
The 200-day moving average slope has declined roughly 6% over the past 30 days and on-balance volume is falling, confirming that sellers are in control of price discovery and that the fundamental opportunity has not yet attracted durable institutional buying. Momentum breakdown | If this pillar is wrong, on-balance volume turns positive and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks, signaling that distribution has ended and a new accumulation phase has begun. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 40% positive earnings surprise and the stock is range-bound rather than in freefall; a positive pipeline or commercial catalyst could attract buyers rapidly and reverse the distribution pattern. | ||
With approximately 16% of the float sold short, sustained technical pressure from short sellers amplifies the impact of any negative catalyst and limits the speed at which positive fundamental news translates into durable price appreciation. Key risks | Short interest falls below 8% as the growth profile becomes more widely recognized, removing this technical headwind. | →Stable |
| CounterA 16% short position alongside falling earnings estimates and confirmed negative momentum may reflect informed sellers who have correctly identified near-term fundamental deterioration rather than mispricing. | ||
The company generates positive free cash flow at a 29% margin with a 7.4% free cash flow yield and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, demonstrating that this is not a pure cash-burning speculative story despite the negative operating income in several recent periods.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin sustains above 20% for the next two reported periods, confirming cash generation is structural rather than episodic.
CounterWith operating margin still negative, free cash flow generation may be supported by working capital timing; if investment cycles intensify to support the 27% revenue growth, free cash flow could compress toward zero even as revenues expand.
Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.61 and roughly 39% implied upside to analyst consensus targets — a combination that typically indicates the market is pricing in a permanent growth deceleration that the recent revenue trajectory does not support.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for the next two reported quarters, reinforcing the mismatch between growth and current valuation.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward and recent quarters have included a miss and an in-line result; if revenue growth decelerates toward the market-implied expectation, the cheap-for-growth valuation argument loses its foundation.
The 200-day moving average slope has declined roughly 6% over the past 30 days and on-balance volume is falling, confirming that sellers are in control of price discovery and that the fundamental opportunity has not yet attracted durable institutional buying.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, on-balance volume turns positive and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks, signaling that distribution has ended and a new accumulation phase has begun.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a 40% positive earnings surprise and the stock is range-bound rather than in freefall; a positive pipeline or commercial catalyst could attract buyers rapidly and reverse the distribution pattern.
With approximately 16% of the float sold short, sustained technical pressure from short sellers amplifies the impact of any negative catalyst and limits the speed at which positive fundamental news translates into durable price appreciation.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% as the growth profile becomes more widely recognized, removing this technical headwind.
CounterA 16% short position alongside falling earnings estimates and confirmed negative momentum may reflect informed sellers who have correctly identified near-term fundamental deterioration rather than mispricing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 29%, FCF yield 9.0%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $3
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.69
Upside
+50.5%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 21, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.3; weakest: Momentum at 1.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Value at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew approximately 27% year-over-year with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.61 and roughly 39% implied upside to analyst consensus targets — a combination that typically indicates the market is pricing in a permanent growth deceleration that the recent revenue trajectory does not support.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 27%, confirming the deceleration the market has been pricing in.
- P2The 200-day moving average slope has declined roughly 6% over the past 30 days and on-balance volume is falling, confirming that sellers are in control of price discovery and that the fundamental opportunity has not yet attracted durable institutional buying.
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks, confirming the downtrend has reversed.
- P3With approximately 16% of the float sold short, sustained technical pressure from short sellers amplifies the impact of any negative catalyst and limits the speed at which positive fundamental news translates into durable price appreciation.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float from the current 16%.
- P4The company generates positive free cash flow at a 29% margin with a 7.4% free cash flow yield and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, demonstrating that this is not a pure cash-burning speculative story despite the negative operating income in several recent periods.
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, from the current 29%, indicating cash generation has materially deteriorated.