Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
LXU · Why this verdict
Why LSB Industries (LXU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Deep valuation and industry-leading growth are offset by momentum that has stalled below the minimum constructive threshold and a market capitalization below the $1 billion investable-universe floor; the earnings beat track record is a positive but insufficient to overcome the structural barriers to institutional participation and the weak near-term price action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.17, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth rate, and the company ranks at the very top of its peer group on both value and growth simultaneously. Value | Forward P/E stays below 15x as earnings growth materializes and the PEG ratio remains below 0.5x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive valuation in chemicals often reflects cyclical trough earnings; if the commodity cycle turns and earnings compress, the low multiple could de-rate further rather than re-rate upward toward fair value. | ||
Price momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold for a constructive trend, and volume flow is trending downward even as the RSI sits in oversold territory — this divergence between weak price action and falling accumulation clouds the near-term entry picture. Momentum | Momentum recovers above 4.5 on a 10-point scale and volume flow reverses from distribution to accumulation within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn oversold RSI of 31 alongside strong fundamental value and analyst upside of 25% could represent a mean-reversion setup; weak near-term momentum in a deeply discounted name sometimes precedes a sharp recovery when fundamentals are improving. | ||
The two most recent quarters both delivered earnings beats — the latest by 183% above consensus — with an average positive surprise of 48% across the trailing four quarters, suggesting management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | The company reports at least two additional earnings beats over the next 12 months, sustaining the positive surprise cadence. | →Stable |
| CounterA miss in the oldest of the four quarters and the wide variance in surprise magnitude indicate the beat pattern may reflect estimate volatility in a cyclical sector rather than durable guidance discipline. | ||
The market capitalization of approximately $860 million falls below the $1 billion minimum threshold, placing the stock outside the standard investable universe and limiting the institutional interest and liquidity that drive sustained re-ratings. Warnings | Market capitalization grows above $1 billion over the next 12 months, clearing the minimum threshold for broader institutional eligibility. | →Stable |
| CounterSub-billion-dollar names can generate outsized returns precisely because institutional capital is constrained from participating; a smaller float and higher retail concentration can amplify upside if the fundamental case plays out. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.17, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth rate, and the company ranks at the very top of its peer group on both value and growth simultaneously.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x as earnings growth materializes and the PEG ratio remains below 0.5x over the next 12 months.
CounterAttractive valuation in chemicals often reflects cyclical trough earnings; if the commodity cycle turns and earnings compress, the low multiple could de-rate further rather than re-rate upward toward fair value.
Price momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold for a constructive trend, and volume flow is trending downward even as the RSI sits in oversold territory — this divergence between weak price action and falling accumulation clouds the near-term entry picture.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 on a 10-point scale and volume flow reverses from distribution to accumulation within 12 months.
CounterAn oversold RSI of 31 alongside strong fundamental value and analyst upside of 25% could represent a mean-reversion setup; weak near-term momentum in a deeply discounted name sometimes precedes a sharp recovery when fundamentals are improving.
The two most recent quarters both delivered earnings beats — the latest by 183% above consensus — with an average positive surprise of 48% across the trailing four quarters, suggesting management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company reports at least two additional earnings beats over the next 12 months, sustaining the positive surprise cadence.
CounterA miss in the oldest of the four quarters and the wide variance in surprise magnitude indicate the beat pattern may reflect estimate volatility in a cyclical sector rather than durable guidance discipline.
The market capitalization of approximately $860 million falls below the $1 billion minimum threshold, placing the stock outside the standard investable universe and limiting the institutional interest and liquidity that drive sustained re-ratings.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Market capitalization grows above $1 billion over the next 12 months, clearing the minimum threshold for broader institutional eligibility.
CounterSub-billion-dollar names can generate outsized returns precisely because institutional capital is constrained from participating; a smaller float and higher retail concentration can amplify upside if the fundamental case plays out.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.2 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $590,279 (0.077% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.5 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸High IV: 85%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $0.77B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.39
Upside
+22.2%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Growth at 8.6, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Insider at 3.9, and Quality at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.17, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth rate, and the company ranks at the very top of its peer group on both value and growth simultaneously.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the deep-value argument has closed.
- P2The two most recent quarters both delivered earnings beats — the latest by 183% above consensus — with an average positive surprise of 48% across the trailing four quarters, suggesting management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price momentum has fallen below the minimum threshold for a constructive trend, and volume flow is trending downward even as the RSI sits in oversold territory — this divergence between weak price action and falling accumulation clouds the near-term entry picture.
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 and OBV turns positive for 2 consecutive months.
- P4The market capitalization of approximately $860 million falls below the $1 billion minimum threshold, placing the stock outside the standard investable universe and limiting the institutional interest and liquidity that drive sustained re-ratings.
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $1 billion for 2 consecutive months.