Value
3.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 51.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.35
LLYVA · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. - S (LLYVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Strong reported revenue growth of 35% year-over-year and positive price momentum coexist with a quality score well below the minimum investable threshold — driven by a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, near-zero margin scores, and three misses in four quarters — while a 52.1x forward multiple and less than 1% upside to the technical target remove any remaining margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 35% year-over-year and price momentum is positive (above the 200-day moving average with rising volume), yet the underlying business quality scores at 1.4 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum floor — indicating that growth is not translating into financial health. Growth breakdown | Quality improves alongside growth: the Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 within 4 quarters as margins turn measurably positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum may prove self-sustaining: a 35% growth rate attracting price buyers can persist even with poor profitability metrics if the market continues to assign a high multiple to the revenue trajectory. | ||
Three misses in four reported quarters — including the most recent at a -32,100% negative surprise — reveal highly unpredictable earnings, making forward consensus estimates unreliable as a valuation anchor. Earnings | Earnings delivery stabilizes: EPS surprise turns positive and stays above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single beat in the trailing period produced a +256% positive surprise, demonstrating that when results turn, they can be dramatic; a single strong quarter could sharply reset market expectations higher. | ||
A single counterparty rated HIGH in the annual risk disclosures represents a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, could impair the business materially with limited alternatives available to offset the shortfall. Bear case | The number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 in a subsequent annual filing, indicating meaningful diversification away from a single relationship. | →Stable |
| CounterA long-standing relationship with a dominant industry partner could reflect a structural competitive advantage rather than a vulnerability, with the concentration itself being a barrier to entry for competing suppliers. | ||
At a 52.1x forward price-to-earnings multiple and with less than 1% of upside remaining to the technical resistance target, the reward/risk ratio is 0.13 — deeply unfavorable — leaving the stock fully valued at best and offering no buffer for further disappointment. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E compresses below 35x within 12 months as earnings growth materializes and the multiple mean-reverts toward a more sustainable level. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-growth businesses with strong momentum can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; if 35% revenue growth continues for 2 or more years, the current multiple may look modest in retrospect. | ||
Revenue is growing at 35% year-over-year and price momentum is positive (above the 200-day moving average with rising volume), yet the underlying business quality scores at 1.4 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum floor — indicating that growth is not translating into financial health.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality improves alongside growth: the Piotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 within 4 quarters as margins turn measurably positive.
CounterThe momentum may prove self-sustaining: a 35% growth rate attracting price buyers can persist even with poor profitability metrics if the market continues to assign a high multiple to the revenue trajectory.
Three misses in four reported quarters — including the most recent at a -32,100% negative surprise — reveal highly unpredictable earnings, making forward consensus estimates unreliable as a valuation anchor.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings delivery stabilizes: EPS surprise turns positive and stays above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe single beat in the trailing period produced a +256% positive surprise, demonstrating that when results turn, they can be dramatic; a single strong quarter could sharply reset market expectations higher.
A single counterparty rated HIGH in the annual risk disclosures represents a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, could impair the business materially with limited alternatives available to offset the shortfall.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 in a subsequent annual filing, indicating meaningful diversification away from a single relationship.
CounterA long-standing relationship with a dominant industry partner could reflect a structural competitive advantage rather than a vulnerability, with the concentration itself being a barrier to entry for competing suppliers.
At a 52.1x forward price-to-earnings multiple and with less than 1% of upside remaining to the technical resistance target, the reward/risk ratio is 0.13 — deeply unfavorable — leaving the stock fully valued at best and offering no buffer for further disappointment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E compresses below 35x within 12 months as earnings growth materializes and the multiple mean-reverts toward a more sustainable level.
CounterHigh-growth businesses with strong momentum can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; if 35% revenue growth continues for 2 or more years, the current multiple may look modest in retrospect.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 7.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 1.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Peer rank at 3.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue is growing at 35% year-over-year and price momentum is positive (above the 200-day moving average with rising volume), yet the underlying business quality scores at 1.4 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum floor — indicating that growth is not translating into financial health.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating financial quality has improved alongside growth.
- P2Three misses in four reported quarters — including the most recent at a -32,100% negative surprise — reveal highly unpredictable earnings, making forward consensus estimates unreliable as a valuation anchor.
Trip ifEPS surprise turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss pattern.
- P3A single counterparty rated HIGH in the annual risk disclosures represents a concentrated revenue dependency that, if disrupted, could impair the business materially with limited alternatives available to offset the shortfall.
Trip ifThe number of disclosed major counterparties exceeds 1 as reported in a subsequent annual regulatory filing.
- P4At a 52.1x forward price-to-earnings multiple and with less than 1% of upside remaining to the technical resistance target, the reward/risk ratio is 0.13 — deeply unfavorable — leaving the stock fully valued at best and offering no buffer for further disappointment.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 30x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation has returned to a range supported by growth fundamentals.