Centrus Energy offers over 37% upside to analyst consensus and a reward-to-risk ratio above 5-to-1, supported by strong analyst sentiment and recent earnings beats, but severe margin compression (operating margin down more than 53%), negative free cash flow, high leverage, 22% short interest, and a death cross create significant execution risk that makes the setup speculative.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Upside Analyst Conviction↓Deteriorating
- Severe Margin Compression↓Deteriorating
- Highly Concentrated Revenue Base↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026· older than 90 days
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Energy · Uranium
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.58: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.54; Below-average business quality.
Centrus Energy Corp. supplies low-enriched uranium (LEU) and technical nuclear fuel services to commercial nuclear power utilities worldwide through its LEU and Technical Solutions segments. The LEU segment generated approximately 77% of total revenue in 2025 under medium- and... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.58: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Centrus Energy Corp.
About Centrus Energy Corp.
Centrus Energy Corp. generated approximately 77% of its 2025 revenue from the LEU segment, which sources and delivers uranium enrichment (measured in separative work units, or SWU) to commercial nuclear power utilities under medium- and long-term contracts extending to 2040. Total backlog stood at $3.8 billion as of December 31, 2025. The company operates a HALEU enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio and a centrifuge manufacturing facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, with plans announced in January 2026 to invest more than $560 million over several years to transition Oak Ridge to a high-rate manufacturing plant.
Centrus earns revenue in two ways. The LEU segment sells SWU contained in LEU, natural uranium hexafluoride, and occasionally full LEU bundles to domestic and international nuclear utilities under fixed-commitment contracts, with SWU pricing formulas referencing market indicators. The largest supplier of SWU is TENEX (a Rosatom subsidiary), followed by the French government-owned company Orano. The Technical Solutions segment earns cost-plus-incentive-fee revenue from the U.S. Department of Energy for operating a HALEU cascade in Piketon, Ohio; Phase 2 of the HALEU Operation Contract reached a funded value of $170.1 million by December 31, 2025. Centrus is also pursuing large-scale LEU enrichment capacity at Piketon to fill $2.3 billion in contingent LEU sales commitments, subject to securing public and private investment.
Show full overview
Supply continuity from TENEX under the TENEX Supply Contract through 2028 is the company's primary operational constraint. The Russian Decree, effective through December 31, 2027, requires TENEX to obtain a specific export license for each LEU shipment to the U.S.; three licenses have been received to date but further issuance is uncertain. The Import Ban Act simultaneously restricts Russian LEU imports without DOE waivers, which are not guaranteed to be granted in a required timeframe. If TENEX cannot export or the DOE declines to grant further waivers, Centrus would need to replace supply from sources that may not be available or affordable, which may impact the company's ability to meet customer delivery obligations and could weigh on financial results.
From Centrus Energy Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Centrus Energy Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Centrus Energy Corp. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026
- NEWS Centrus Energy Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $450.000M-$500.000M — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Centrus Energy Q3 Adj. EPS $(0.49) Misses $(0.34) Estimate, Sales $55.500M Miss $57.409M Estimate — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS BofA Securities Adjusts Centrus Energy Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Centrus Energy Ships First New Centrifuge from Oak Ridge Facility — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductLEU segment77%10-K Item 1: 'Our LEU segment accounted for approximately 77% of our total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierTENEX10-K Item 1A: 'We are currently dependent on purchases from suppliers to meet our obligations to customers, including SWU purchases from the Russian government entity, TENEX'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Volatile — 8.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $92.58: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 6.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $86.10. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $185.72 (+100.6% upside). Prior stop was $86.10. Stop-loss: $86.10.
Concentration risk — Product: LEU segment (77.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.37% of cap), Negative free cash flow.
Centrus Energy Corp. trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts rate LEU, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $206.
What does Centrus Energy Corp. do?Centrus Energy Corp. supplies low-enriched uranium (LEU) and technical nuclear fuel services to commercial nuclear...
Centrus Energy Corp. supplies low-enriched uranium (LEU) and technical nuclear fuel services to commercial nuclear power utilities worldwide through its LEU and Technical Solutions segments. The LEU segment generated approximately 77% of total revenue in 2025 under medium- and long-term fixed-commitment contracts; total backlog stood at $3.8 billion as of December 31, 2025, extending to 2040.