Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
LC · Why this verdict
Why LendingClub (LC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
LendingClub presents an attractively valued lender — with a forward price-to-earnings of 8 times and a near-zero growth-adjusted multiple — backed by a consistent earnings delivery record, but a reward-to-risk ratio below the minimum threshold means the position is best maintained rather than expanded at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 8 times and a PEG ratio of 0.02, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its current earnings trajectory, leaving room for multiple expansion if operating momentum holds. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth validates the discount. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-cap financial lenders often carry persistent valuation discounts that reflect structural credit-cycle risk; the cheap multiple may be warranted rather than a gap waiting to close. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 23.7% positive surprise and prior beats running as high as 117%, suggesting management consistently sets a bar it can clear. Earnings | Average earnings surprise stays above 10% over the next four quarters, with no consecutive misses. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one in-line quarter in the trailing four suggests the beat cadence is not perfect; a credit-quality deterioration or higher-than-expected charge-offs could flip the trend negative without warning. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD configuration, and rising on-balance volume signals institutional accumulation rather than distribution. Momentum breakdown | RSI holds above 50 and the stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for the next six months. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility of 74% and a put/call ratio above 1.2 indicate elevated options market hedging; a high-beta name with momentum can reverse sharply if market conditions shift. | ||
With roughly 9.6% headroom to the price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.37-to-1 — below the minimum 1.5-to-1 asymmetry bar — the current setup does not offer enough margin to justify adding to the position. Price targets | Reward-to-risk ratio remains below 1.5-to-1 over the next six months absent a significant pullback or target revision, confirming the case for patience rather than adding. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1.37-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio is still technically favorable; if earnings momentum drives analyst target revisions higher, the asymmetry constraint could resolve without requiring a price pullback. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 8 times and a PEG ratio of 0.02, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its current earnings trajectory, leaving room for multiple expansion if operating momentum holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth validates the discount.
CounterSmall-cap financial lenders often carry persistent valuation discounts that reflect structural credit-cycle risk; the cheap multiple may be warranted rather than a gap waiting to close.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 23.7% positive surprise and prior beats running as high as 117%, suggesting management consistently sets a bar it can clear.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average earnings surprise stays above 10% over the next four quarters, with no consecutive misses.
CounterThe one in-line quarter in the trailing four suggests the beat cadence is not perfect; a credit-quality deterioration or higher-than-expected charge-offs could flip the trend negative without warning.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD configuration, and rising on-balance volume signals institutional accumulation rather than distribution.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI holds above 50 and the stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for the next six months.
CounterImplied volatility of 74% and a put/call ratio above 1.2 indicate elevated options market hedging; a high-beta name with momentum can reverse sharply if market conditions shift.
With roughly 9.6% headroom to the price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.37-to-1 — below the minimum 1.5-to-1 asymmetry bar — the current setup does not offer enough margin to justify adding to the position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk ratio remains below 1.5-to-1 over the next six months absent a significant pullback or target revision, confirming the case for patience rather than adding.
CounterA 1.37-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio is still technically favorable; if earnings momentum drives analyst target revisions higher, the asymmetry constraint could resolve without requiring a price pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 163% FCF/NI
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,043,724 (0.047% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:3.01
Reward-to-Risk
0.35
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.97>1.3, MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Insider at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Momentum at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Technical at 4.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 23.7% positive surprise and prior beats running as high as 117%, suggesting management consistently sets a bar it can clear.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings of 8 times and a PEG ratio of 0.02, the stock screens as attractively priced relative to its current earnings trajectory, leaving room for multiple expansion if operating momentum holds.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current 8x without a commensurate upward revision in earnings estimates.
- P3The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD configuration, and rising on-balance volume signals institutional accumulation rather than distribution.
Trip ifStock closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4With roughly 9.6% headroom to the price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.37-to-1 — below the minimum 1.5-to-1 asymmetry bar — the current setup does not offer enough margin to justify adding to the position.
Trip ifUpside to price target exceeds 15%, pushing reward-to-risk above 1.5-to-1, falsifying the constraint thesis.