Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
KNX · Why this verdict
Why Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The trucking franchise is caught in a recovery-in-progress narrative that the fundamentals do not yet support: three consecutive earnings misses, negative free cash flow combined with elevated leverage, and a stock that has already exceeded the analyst consensus target create a setup where the risk of disappointment outweighs the potential for near-term appreciation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already exceeded the analyst consensus price target by roughly 13.2%, implying that new buyers at current prices are paying above what the collective analyst view considers fair; with the reward/risk unfavorable and no identified catalyst, the margin for further appreciation is thin. Bear case | The setup becomes more compelling if analyst consensus price targets are upgraded more than 15% above the current $79.25 level, restoring meaningful upside headroom. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical industries are backward-looking; if freight cycle recovery arrives ahead of expectations, consensus estimates and targets are typically revised sharply higher, rendering the current overshoot irrelevant. | ||
Three of the last four quarters delivered negative earnings surprises, with an average shortfall of roughly 15.9%, indicating that the business has been consistently unable to meet market expectations during what should be a cyclical recovery phase. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn positive and average above 5% for two consecutive quarters if a genuine earnings recovery is underway. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the window posted a 5% positive surprise, and a low PEG ratio implies that even modest earnings recovery would appear highly attractive at the current multiple; the misses may reflect trough cyclical conditions rather than structural deterioration. | ||
The combination of debt-to-equity at 2.1 and negative free cash flow raises a value-trap concern: the business appears inexpensive on reported earnings, but financial flexibility is constrained precisely when cyclical recovery capital is needed most. Warnings | The value-trap risk would ease if free cash flow turns positive and debt-to-equity declines below 1.5 over two consecutive annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterTrucking is a capital-intensive sector where asset ownership justifies higher leverage; if freight rates recover, both free cash flow and debt coverage can improve rapidly, and today's leverage may represent peak-cycle investment rather than structural impairment. | ||
Despite a bullish price pattern—golden cross, above all moving averages, and a high RSI—on-balance volume is declining, meaning the price move is occurring without the broad participation typically associated with sustainable breakouts. Momentum | Volume distribution should reverse to accumulation (rising on-balance volume) for at least two consecutive months if institutional buyers are genuinely supporting the move. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice can sustain a breakout ahead of volume in lower-liquidity industrial stocks where a small number of large orders drive price without registering as broad-based buying; the volume signal may lag rather than contradict the price action. | ||
The stock has already exceeded the analyst consensus price target by roughly 13.2%, implying that new buyers at current prices are paying above what the collective analyst view considers fair; with the reward/risk unfavorable and no identified catalyst, the margin for further appreciation is thin.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The setup becomes more compelling if analyst consensus price targets are upgraded more than 15% above the current $79.25 level, restoring meaningful upside headroom.
CounterAnalyst targets in cyclical industries are backward-looking; if freight cycle recovery arrives ahead of expectations, consensus estimates and targets are typically revised sharply higher, rendering the current overshoot irrelevant.
Three of the last four quarters delivered negative earnings surprises, with an average shortfall of roughly 15.9%, indicating that the business has been consistently unable to meet market expectations during what should be a cyclical recovery phase.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn positive and average above 5% for two consecutive quarters if a genuine earnings recovery is underway.
CounterThe one beat in the window posted a 5% positive surprise, and a low PEG ratio implies that even modest earnings recovery would appear highly attractive at the current multiple; the misses may reflect trough cyclical conditions rather than structural deterioration.
The combination of debt-to-equity at 2.1 and negative free cash flow raises a value-trap concern: the business appears inexpensive on reported earnings, but financial flexibility is constrained precisely when cyclical recovery capital is needed most.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The value-trap risk would ease if free cash flow turns positive and debt-to-equity declines below 1.5 over two consecutive annual reporting periods.
CounterTrucking is a capital-intensive sector where asset ownership justifies higher leverage; if freight rates recover, both free cash flow and debt coverage can improve rapidly, and today's leverage may represent peak-cycle investment rather than structural impairment.
Despite a bullish price pattern—golden cross, above all moving averages, and a high RSI—on-balance volume is declining, meaning the price move is occurring without the broad participation typically associated with sustainable breakouts.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Volume distribution should reverse to accumulation (rising on-balance volume) for at least two consecutive months if institutional buyers are genuinely supporting the move.
CounterPrice can sustain a breakout ahead of volume in lower-liquidity industrial stocks where a small number of large orders drive price without registering as broad-based buying; the volume signal may lag rather than contradict the price action.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 2.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.67
- ▸Above max pain $35
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.03
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 7.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Value at 6.4, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.1, Growth at 2.8, and Quality at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Three of the last four quarters delivered negative earnings surprises, with an average shortfall of roughly 15.9%, indicating that the business has been consistently unable to meet market expectations during what should be a cyclical recovery phase.
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The combination of debt-to-equity at 2.1 and negative free cash flow raises a value-trap concern: the business appears inexpensive on reported earnings, but financial flexibility is constrained precisely when cyclical recovery capital is needed most.
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive and debt-to-equity falls below 1.5 for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P3Despite a bullish price pattern—golden cross, above all moving averages, and a high RSI—on-balance volume is declining, meaning the price move is occurring without the broad participation typically associated with sustainable breakouts.
Trip ifOn-balance volume trend reverses to rising and price closes above $81 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4The stock has already exceeded the analyst consensus price target by roughly 13.2%, implying that new buyers at current prices are paying above what the collective analyst view considers fair; with the reward/risk unfavorable and no identified catalyst, the margin for further appreciation is thin.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target upgrades to more than 15% above the current price of $79.25.