Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
KNSA · Why this verdict
Why Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Interna (KNSA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company is delivering exceptional 56% year-over-year revenue growth with outstanding cash conversion, but single-product and single-supplier concentration creates a binary risk that the current price leaves little margin for error—and the unfavorable reward/risk geometry with only 5.5% headroom to the take-profit level limits the case for adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite strong revenue growth, the company missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average shortfall of roughly 9.3%, suggesting that cost management or margin conversion has been unpredictable. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn consistently positive—exceeding 5% for two consecutive quarters—if the earnings delivery track record is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter posted a 69% positive surprise, meaningfully reversing the prior trend; one strong beat after three misses could signal a reset in guidance discipline rather than continued volatility in earnings delivery. | ||
Revenue is growing at 56% year-over-year, a pace that leads the peer group, and a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market has not yet fully priced this trajectory into the valuation. Growth | Revenue growth should sustain above 30% year-over-year for at least two consecutive quarters if the growth story remains intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, with an average shortfall of roughly 9.3%; if top-line growth is not translating into earnings power, the high revenue rate may be masking underlying profitability challenges that will eventually compress the multiple. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 161% of net income, indicating the business is generating far more cash than accounting earnings suggest and supporting financial flexibility for reinvestment or balance sheet management. Quality | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain above 100% for two consecutive reporting periods if the cash quality thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong cash conversion can mask the underlying product and supplier concentration risks; a single adverse event at the key product level could abruptly interrupt cash flows irrespective of the current conversion quality. | ||
The business carries high concentration risk at both the product and supplier level—a single product accounts for the majority of revenue and a single external partner is the sole supplier—creating binary downside in any disruption scenario. Bear case | Concentration risk would ease if the company adds a second meaningful revenue source, reducing reliance on the primary product below 50% of total revenue over the next two annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-product businesses with strong market penetration can generate more durable cash flows than diversified ones in their early growth phases; concentration may reflect focus and execution discipline rather than structural fragility. | ||
Despite strong revenue growth, the company missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average shortfall of roughly 9.3%, suggesting that cost management or margin conversion has been unpredictable.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn consistently positive—exceeding 5% for two consecutive quarters—if the earnings delivery track record is improving.
CounterThe most recent quarter posted a 69% positive surprise, meaningfully reversing the prior trend; one strong beat after three misses could signal a reset in guidance discipline rather than continued volatility in earnings delivery.
Revenue is growing at 56% year-over-year, a pace that leads the peer group, and a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market has not yet fully priced this trajectory into the valuation.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should sustain above 30% year-over-year for at least two consecutive quarters if the growth story remains intact.
CounterThree of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, with an average shortfall of roughly 9.3%; if top-line growth is not translating into earnings power, the high revenue rate may be masking underlying profitability challenges that will eventually compress the multiple.
Free cash flow is running at 161% of net income, indicating the business is generating far more cash than accounting earnings suggest and supporting financial flexibility for reinvestment or balance sheet management.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain above 100% for two consecutive reporting periods if the cash quality thesis holds.
CounterStrong cash conversion can mask the underlying product and supplier concentration risks; a single adverse event at the key product level could abruptly interrupt cash flows irrespective of the current conversion quality.
The business carries high concentration risk at both the product and supplier level—a single product accounts for the majority of revenue and a single external partner is the sole supplier—creating binary downside in any disruption scenario.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration risk would ease if the company adds a second meaningful revenue source, reducing reliance on the primary product below 50% of total revenue over the next two annual reporting periods.
CounterSingle-product businesses with strong market penetration can generate more durable cash flows than diversified ones in their early growth phases; concentration may reflect focus and execution discipline rather than structural fragility.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 161% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 88)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $34,045,638 (0.748% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.29
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.48
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.48 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Insider at 3.1, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue is growing at 56% year-over-year, a pace that leads the peer group, and a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market has not yet fully priced this trajectory into the valuation.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Free cash flow is running at 161% of net income, indicating the business is generating far more cash than accounting earnings suggest and supporting financial flexibility for reinvestment or balance sheet management.
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3The business carries high concentration risk at both the product and supplier level—a single product accounts for the majority of revenue and a single external partner is the sole supplier—creating binary downside in any disruption scenario.
Trip ifPrimary product revenue share falls below 50% of total revenue for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P4Despite strong revenue growth, the company missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average shortfall of roughly 9.3%, suggesting that cost management or margin conversion has been unpredictable.
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.