Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
KFY · Why this verdict
Why Korn Ferry (KFY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Korn Ferry has delivered four consecutive earnings beats at consistent margins and trades at an attractive 12.4x forward earnings, but with an earnings report due in two days, only 2.6% headroom to the near-term price target, and falling on-balance volume, the setup demands patience rather than immediate action.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters — with surprise margins ranging from roughly 1.4% to 5.95% — suggesting management is consistently delivering ahead of expectations with disciplined execution. Earnings | EPS beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the streak beyond 6 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat was only 3.6% above consensus, and with earnings reporting in two days, a single miss would break the streak and likely reprice the stock sharply — the current multiple reflects the market pricing in continuation. | ||
At a forward P/E of 12.4x and a PEG of 1.06 — where price is roughly in line with the growth rate — the shares offer reasonable value for a business with a consistent execution record and a strong financial health score. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 16x as earnings grow, preserving the valuation case through the next two reporting cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only 2.6% remaining headroom to the near-term price target at $73.23, the multiple attractiveness is partially offset by limited effective price upside at current levels. | ||
With an earnings report due in two days and implied volatility at 156%, the options market is pricing in a significant potential price move in either direction — a condition that argues for waiting until after the print before taking a position. Warnings | Post-earnings, if the beat streak extends, a favorable price reaction creates a cleaner entry with improved risk/reward geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterFour straight beats may have been partially priced in already, which could limit upside on a beat while leaving downside fully open on any disappointment or cautious guidance. | ||
On-balance volume is declining even as the price remains above its moving averages — a divergence between price and volume that suggests the upward trend may lack institutional conviction heading into the earnings event. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume reverses to a rising trend for 4 consecutive weeks post-earnings, confirming institutional re-engagement. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings print could quickly shift volume from distributing to accumulating, making the falling on-balance volume a short-lived condition rather than a structural warning. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters — with surprise margins ranging from roughly 1.4% to 5.95% — suggesting management is consistently delivering ahead of expectations with disciplined execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the streak beyond 6 quarters.
CounterThe most recent beat was only 3.6% above consensus, and with earnings reporting in two days, a single miss would break the streak and likely reprice the stock sharply — the current multiple reflects the market pricing in continuation.
At a forward P/E of 12.4x and a PEG of 1.06 — where price is roughly in line with the growth rate — the shares offer reasonable value for a business with a consistent execution record and a strong financial health score.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 16x as earnings grow, preserving the valuation case through the next two reporting cycles.
CounterWith only 2.6% remaining headroom to the near-term price target at $73.23, the multiple attractiveness is partially offset by limited effective price upside at current levels.
With an earnings report due in two days and implied volatility at 156%, the options market is pricing in a significant potential price move in either direction — a condition that argues for waiting until after the print before taking a position.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Post-earnings, if the beat streak extends, a favorable price reaction creates a cleaner entry with improved risk/reward geometry.
CounterFour straight beats may have been partially priced in already, which could limit upside on a beat while leaving downside fully open on any disappointment or cautious guidance.
On-balance volume is declining even as the price remains above its moving averages — a divergence between price and volume that suggests the upward trend may lack institutional conviction heading into the earnings event.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume reverses to a rising trend for 4 consecutive weeks post-earnings, confirming institutional re-engagement.
CounterA strong earnings print could quickly shift volume from distributing to accumulating, making the falling on-balance volume a short-lived condition rather than a structural warning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 311.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Technical at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Growth at 4.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters — with surprise margins ranging from roughly 1.4% to 5.95% — suggesting management is consistently delivering ahead of expectations with disciplined execution.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward P/E of 12.4x and a PEG of 1.06 — where price is roughly in line with the growth rate — the shares offer reasonable value for a business with a consistent execution record and a strong financial health score.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x without a commensurate increase in earnings growth.
- P3With an earnings report due in two days and implied volatility at 156%, the options market is pricing in a significant potential price move in either direction — a condition that argues for waiting until after the print before taking a position.
Trip ifPost-earnings price reaction falls more than 10% on the upcoming print.
- P4On-balance volume is declining even as the price remains above its moving averages — a divergence between price and volume that suggests the upward trend may lack institutional conviction heading into the earnings event.
Trip ifOn-balance volume rises above its prior 4-week average for 4 consecutive weeks following the earnings report, confirming institutional accumulation and invalidating the weak-internals concern.