Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.45
ITGR · Why this verdict
Why Integer Holdings (ITGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Integer Holdings has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock now sits near the top of its near-term expected range with only 2.2% upside to resistance and a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.4-to-1. Weak price momentum, an elevated short interest of 16%, and the absence of a competitive moat combine to make the current setup unattractive for new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters — with the oldest quarter delivering an in-line result, followed by three straight beats including the most recent April 2026 period — suggesting a pattern of consistent delivery against analyst expectations. Earnings | EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates in each of the next 2 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 13.3x alongside a PEG of 2.43 implies the market has already priced in continued delivery; without a competitive moat, there is limited justification for the current multiple if earnings growth disappoints. | ||
On-balance volume is in a declining trend and price has been range-bound in mid-territory, indicating that sellers are outpacing buyers on a volume-flow basis even though the stock has held above its 200-day moving average. Momentum | Momentum improves if on-balance volume reverses upward and RSI breaks above 60 on rising average volume. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average could indicate healthy consolidation rather than distribution; if earnings beats continue, institutional buyers may re-engage and restart an upward trend. | ||
With approximately 2.2% upside to near-term resistance and roughly 5% downside to the reference support level, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 0.4-to-1 — well below any threshold that would justify committing new capital at this price. Price targets | The setup becomes more attractive if the stock pulls back enough to expand upside to the take-profit target to at least 10%, restoring a more favorable asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf business results continue to exceed expectations, the stock may break through current resistance without offering a better entry, leaving patient investors behind. | ||
Short interest at 16% of the float is elevated — adverse news could accelerate selling pressure while positive results risk a disorderly covering event that distorts the stock's price signal in either direction. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 8% as the fundamental picture clarifies, reducing the volatility amplification risk. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest could serve as a squeeze catalyst if earnings beats force shorts to cover, producing a sharp near-term rally that rewards existing holders disproportionately. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters — with the oldest quarter delivering an in-line result, followed by three straight beats including the most recent April 2026 period — suggesting a pattern of consistent delivery against analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates in each of the next 2 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 1%.
CounterThe forward P/E of 13.3x alongside a PEG of 2.43 implies the market has already priced in continued delivery; without a competitive moat, there is limited justification for the current multiple if earnings growth disappoints.
On-balance volume is in a declining trend and price has been range-bound in mid-territory, indicating that sellers are outpacing buyers on a volume-flow basis even though the stock has held above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Momentum improves if on-balance volume reverses upward and RSI breaks above 60 on rising average volume.
CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average could indicate healthy consolidation rather than distribution; if earnings beats continue, institutional buyers may re-engage and restart an upward trend.
With approximately 2.2% upside to near-term resistance and roughly 5% downside to the reference support level, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 0.4-to-1 — well below any threshold that would justify committing new capital at this price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes more attractive if the stock pulls back enough to expand upside to the take-profit target to at least 10%, restoring a more favorable asymmetry.
CounterIf business results continue to exceed expectations, the stock may break through current resistance without offering a better entry, leaving patient investors behind.
Short interest at 16% of the float is elevated — adverse news could accelerate selling pressure while positive results risk a disorderly covering event that distorts the stock's price signal in either direction.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 8% as the fundamental picture clarifies, reducing the volatility amplification risk.
CounterElevated short interest could serve as a squeeze catalyst if earnings beats force shorts to cover, producing a sharp near-term rally that rewards existing holders disproportionately.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 6.3 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 13.00
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-9.3%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.3, Value at 5.9, and Sentiment at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Technical at 3.0, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters — with the oldest quarter delivering an in-line result, followed by three straight beats including the most recent April 2026 period — suggesting a pattern of consistent delivery against analyst expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2On-balance volume is in a declining trend and price has been range-bound in mid-territory, indicating that sellers are outpacing buyers on a volume-flow basis even though the stock has held above its 200-day moving average.
Trip ifRSI rises above 60 and on-balance volume turns consistently positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3With approximately 2.2% upside to near-term resistance and roughly 5% downside to the reference support level, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 0.4-to-1 — well below any threshold that would justify committing new capital at this price.
Trip ifUpside to take-profit target expands above 10% following a price pullback.
- P4Short interest at 16% of the float is elevated — adverse news could accelerate selling pressure while positive results risk a disorderly covering event that distorts the stock's price signal in either direction.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of the float.