Value
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5 |
| p ocf | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 0.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
IRS · Why this verdict
Why IRSA Inversiones Y Representaci (IRS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IRSA demonstrates genuine business quality — 73% margins, wide economic moat indicators, and 29% revenue growth — but at the current price the reward-to-risk ratio at spot is approximately 0.3-to-1, well short of a viable entry threshold; the setup rewards patience for a meaningful pullback rather than a new position at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries gross margins of 73% alongside wide economic moat indicators and the combination of strong returns and growth that characterizes a high-quality compounding franchise. Quality breakdown | Gross margins remain above 65% and the economic moat score stays at its current level for four consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is flagged at 46% of net income — a meaningful gap — meaning the strong reported margins may not translate fully into cash; if that shortfall persists, the quality case rests on accounting earnings rather than tangible cash generation. | ||
Revenue is growing at 29% year-over-year, a pace that substantially exceeds what most real-estate-services businesses deliver and suggests meaningful pricing power or significant asset expansion. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-year revenue surge of 29% in a real estate context can reflect asset disposal gains or favorable currency translation rather than durable organic growth; if subsequent quarters revert to single-digit growth, the compounding thesis weakens materially. | ||
At the current price, the reward-to-risk ratio at spot is approximately 0.3-to-1 — well below the 1.5-to-1 minimum that would justify initiating a position — with only 4.9% of headroom to the analyst target against a downside of roughly 15%. Warnings | Price pulls back toward the entry target near $13.76, restoring a risk/reward above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is strong — overbought technicals, rising volume accumulation, and price holding well above the 200-day moving average suggest the market is pricing in the strong fundamentals; the stock may not revisit the entry-target range before the next catalyst. | ||
The earnings record shows two beats and two misses with extreme swings in surprise magnitude, indicating that analyst estimates are difficult to calibrate to this business and adding execution uncertainty beyond what the headline beat/miss split captures. Earnings | The company delivers at least four consecutive earnings beats with the absolute surprise magnitude remaining below 100% in each quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterVolatile earnings surprises in a real-estate company may reflect lumpy asset-sale timing or currency revaluation rather than underlying business instability; once normalized, the core earnings stream may be more predictable than the historical surprise extremes suggest. | ||
The business carries gross margins of 73% alongside wide economic moat indicators and the combination of strong returns and growth that characterizes a high-quality compounding franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margins remain above 65% and the economic moat score stays at its current level for four consecutive quarters.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is flagged at 46% of net income — a meaningful gap — meaning the strong reported margins may not translate fully into cash; if that shortfall persists, the quality case rests on accounting earnings rather than tangible cash generation.
Revenue is growing at 29% year-over-year, a pace that substantially exceeds what most real-estate-services businesses deliver and suggests meaningful pricing power or significant asset expansion.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rate stays above 15% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters.
CounterA single-year revenue surge of 29% in a real estate context can reflect asset disposal gains or favorable currency translation rather than durable organic growth; if subsequent quarters revert to single-digit growth, the compounding thesis weakens materially.
At the current price, the reward-to-risk ratio at spot is approximately 0.3-to-1 — well below the 1.5-to-1 minimum that would justify initiating a position — with only 4.9% of headroom to the analyst target against a downside of roughly 15%.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward the entry target near $13.76, restoring a risk/reward above 1.5-to-1.
CounterMomentum is strong — overbought technicals, rising volume accumulation, and price holding well above the 200-day moving average suggest the market is pricing in the strong fundamentals; the stock may not revisit the entry-target range before the next catalyst.
The earnings record shows two beats and two misses with extreme swings in surprise magnitude, indicating that analyst estimates are difficult to calibrate to this business and adding execution uncertainty beyond what the headline beat/miss split captures.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least four consecutive earnings beats with the absolute surprise magnitude remaining below 100% in each quarter.
CounterVolatile earnings surprises in a real-estate company may reflect lumpy asset-sale timing or currency revaluation rather than underlying business instability; once normalized, the core earnings stream may be more predictable than the historical surprise extremes suggest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 73%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 1483.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 66% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:69d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.47
Upside
+14.5%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.9<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 1.47.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Peer rank at 8.0, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Catalyst at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.47 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business carries gross margins of 73% alongside wide economic moat indicators and the combination of strong returns and growth that characterizes a high-quality compounding franchise.
Trip ifGross margin compresses below 55% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue is growing at 29% year-over-year, a pace that substantially exceeds what most real-estate-services businesses deliver and suggests meaningful pricing power or significant asset expansion.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At the current price, the reward-to-risk ratio at spot is approximately 0.3-to-1 — well below the 1.5-to-1 minimum that would justify initiating a position — with only 4.9% of headroom to the analyst target against a downside of roughly 15%.
Trip ifPrice falls below $14.50 for at least 5 consecutive trading sessions, restoring entry geometry above 1.5-to-1.
- P4The earnings record shows two beats and two misses with extreme swings in surprise magnitude, indicating that analyst estimates are difficult to calibrate to this business and adding execution uncertainty beyond what the headline beat/miss split captures.
Trip ifEPS exceeds consensus in 4 consecutive quarters with each positive surprise below 100% in magnitude.